USA. MLS

San Jose Earthquakes vs Los Angeles: Prediction, Odds & Analysis

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San Jose Earthquakesvs

Los Angeles

Our predictionLos Angeles to win

Model score: Low · 28/100

Score hint: 1-2

The model puts Los Angeles at 44%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: low.

Why this prediction

+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.

−San Jose Earthquakes score more per game (2.0 at home vs 1.0 away).
+Recent form favours Los Angeles.
−The head-to-head record favours San Jose Earthquakes (8-2-5).
−San Jose Earthquakes creates more chances (16 vs 14 shots per game).
+San Jose Earthquakes are dealing with notable absentees.
−Los Angeles are dealing with notable absentees.

Win probabilities

1 · San Jose Earthquakes35%

Draw21%

2 · Los Angeles44%

1 · San Jose EarthquakesDraw2 · Los Angeles

Full team comparison →

Model vs market

Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.

BTTSNo2.69+7.3%

1X2San Jose Earthquakes3.13+5.1%

1X2Los Angeles2.08-1.9%

1X2Draw3.96-3.2%

BTTSYes1.41-7.3%

Our model BookmakerPositive edge = model disagreement, not a value bet. Not betting advice.

Expected goals

1.40San Jose Earthquakes

1.49Los Angeles

Over 2.5 goals55%

Both teams to score58%

Recent form

San Jose EarthquakesLLDDD

Los AngelesLWDDW

Team strength rating

San Jose Earthquakes

Los Angeles

Most likely scorelines

1-111.6%

1-28.7%

0-18.3%

2-18.1%

1-07.8%

0-26.2%

Match DNA

San Jose Earthquakes Los Angeles

Key points

San Jose Earthquakes have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
Los Angeles have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
San Jose Earthquakes have won 8 of the head-to-head meetings.
San Jose Earthquakes will be without Adimabua, Edwards, Judd P., Roberts, Werner, Jones.
Los Angeles will be without Hasal, Porteous R., Tillman.

Betting angles

MarketPickOddsAssessment

1X2Los Angeles win2.08Fair (-1.9%)

Double chanceLos Angeles or draw—Info

Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.

Scoreline probability matrix

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	6	8	6	3	1
1	8	12	9	4	2
2	5	8	6	3	1
3	3	4	3	1
4		1
5

Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.

Full analysis

The model puts San Jose Earthquakes at 35%. The model puts the draw at 21%. The model puts Los Angeles at 44%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-2.

The market leans toward Los Angeles. San Jose Earthquakes is priced at 3.125. The draw is priced at 3.96. Los Angeles is priced at 2.08.

San Jose Earthquakes have won 8 of the head-to-head meetings. Los Angeles have won 5 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 2 of their head-to-head meetings.

San Jose Earthquakes have 0 wins in their last 5 matches. Los Angeles have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.

San Jose Earthquakes average 2 goals per game this season. San Jose Earthquakes average 50% possession. Los Angeles average 1 goals per game this season. Los Angeles average 48% possession.

The model gives 58% for both teams to score. The model gives 55% for over 2.5 goals.

This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.

Prediction Track Record →Methodology →Model card →

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite, San Jose Earthquakes or Los Angeles?

Our model rates Los Angeles as the most likely outcome at 44% probability.

What's a likely scoreline for San Jose Earthquakes vs Los Angeles?

A scoreline around 1-2 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.

What's the head-to-head record?

In the last 15 meetings: 8 San Jose Earthquakes wins, 2 draws, 5 Los Angeles wins.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.

See odds at bookmakers

Match statistics

Player of the matchGunn A.San Jose Earthquakes9.2