Portland Timbers vs Atlanta United: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Portland Timbersvs
Atlanta UnitedThe model puts Portland Timbers at 53%. The model leans toward Portland Timbers. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Portland Timbers.
- +Portland Timbers score more per game (2.0 at home vs 1.0 away).
- +The head-to-head record favours Portland Timbers (3-2-1).
- −Portland Timbers are dealing with notable absentees.
- +Atlanta United are dealing with notable absentees.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Portland Timbers have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Atlanta United have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Portland Timbers have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Portland Timbers will be without Aravena A., Bae, Muse T., Barrera Jo., Da Costa, Mosquera.
- Atlanta United will be without Galoppo G., Alzate S..
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 5 | 3 | |||
| 1 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Portland Timbers at 53%. The model puts the draw at 21%. The model puts Atlanta United at 26%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward Portland Timbers. Portland Timbers is priced at 1.96. The draw is priced at 3.98. Atlanta United is priced at 3.42.
Portland Timbers have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings. Atlanta United have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 2 of their head-to-head meetings.
Portland Timbers have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Atlanta United have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
Portland Timbers average 2 goals per game this season. Portland Timbers average 51% possession. Atlanta United average 1 goals per game this season. Atlanta United average 50% possession.
The model gives 54% for both teams to score. The model gives 56% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Portland Timbers or Atlanta United?
Our model rates Portland Timbers as the most likely outcome at 53% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Portland Timbers vs Atlanta United?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 3 Portland Timbers wins, 2 draws, 1 Atlanta United wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
Match statistics
Portland Timbers
- 4Miller Kam.
- 7Lassiter
- 11Alves Santos
- 12Hernandez R.
- 14Janssen V.
- 17Bassett Co.
- 20Surman
- 21Chara D.
- 27Fory
- 41Pantemis
- 99Velde
- Aravena A. (Missing Player)
- Bae (Missing Player)
- Muse T. (Questionable)
- Barrera Jo. (Missing Player)
- Da Costa (Missing Player)
- Mosquera (Missing Player)
Atlanta United
- 1Hoyos L.
- 3Baez
- 6Alonso Ju.
- 10Almiron
- 14Amaro
- 27Dias P.
- 35Fortune
- 36Embolo
- 48Sanchez
- 55Jakob
- 59Miranchuk A.
- Galoppo G. (Questionable)
- Alzate S. (Missing Player)
League table
USA. MLS| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Vancouver Whitecaps | 24 | 14 | 6 | 4 | 53:23 | 46 |
| 2 |  Houston Dynamo | 25 | 13 | 8 | 4 | 32:28 | 43 |
| 3 |  Dallas | 25 | 12 | 6 | 7 | 49:42 | 43 |
| 4 |  San Jose Earthquakes | 25 | 12 | 8 | 5 | 44:36 | 41 |
| 5 |  St. Louis City | 25 | 11 | 6 | 8 | 42:35 | 41 |
| 6 |  Los Angeles | 26 | 11 | 8 | 7 | 41:27 | 40 |
| 7 |  Colorado Rapids | 25 | 11 | 12 | 2 | 33:32 | 35 |
| 8 | Portland Timbers | 25 | 9 | 11 | 5 | 47:47 | 32 |
| 9 |  San Diego | 25 | 8 | 11 | 6 | 42:42 | 30 |
| 10 |  Los Angeles Galaxy | 26 | 7 | 10 | 9 | 31:40 | 30 |
| 11 |  Real Salt Lake | 24 | 8 | 11 | 5 | 37:39 | 29 |
| 12 |  Minnesota United | 25 | 7 | 10 | 8 | 37:43 | 29 |
| 13 |  Austin | 25 | 7 | 10 | 8 | 32:44 | 29 |
| 14 |  Seattle Sounders | 23 | 7 | 9 | 7 | 25:30 | 28 |
| 15 |  Sporting Kansas City | 24 | 5 | 16 | 3 | 26:59 | 18 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.