Monterrey vs Cruz Azul: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Monterreyvs
Cruz AzulThe model puts Monterrey at 43%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −Recent form favours Cruz Azul.
- +The head-to-head record favours Monterrey (7-4-4).
- +Cruz Azul are dealing with notable absentees.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Monterrey have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Cruz Azul have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Monterrey have won 7 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Monterrey will be without Arteaga.
- Cruz Azul will be without Levi, Morales.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 8 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 11 | 12 | 7 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 4 | 5 | 3 | |||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | ||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Monterrey at 43%. The model puts the draw at 25%. The model puts Cruz Azul at 32%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market frames this as a close contest. Monterrey is priced at 2.2. The draw is priced at 3.48. Cruz Azul is priced at 2.963.
Monterrey have won 7 of the head-to-head meetings. Cruz Azul have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 4 of their head-to-head meetings.
Monterrey have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Cruz Azul have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 52% for both teams to score. The model gives 49% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Monterrey or Cruz Azul?
Our model rates Monterrey as the most likely outcome at 43% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Monterrey vs Cruz Azul?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 7 Monterrey wins, 4 draws, 4 Cruz Azul wins.
Match statistics
Monterrey
- 1Andrada E.
- 2Chavez R.
- 4Guzman
- 7Ocampos
- 8Torres O.
- 9Rossi Di.
- 13Salcedo C.
- 17Corona Jes.
- 21Reyes L
- 25Pineda Orb.
- 99Kuijpers
- Arteaga (Missing Player)
Cruz Azul
- 3Campos Chagoya
- 4Ditta
- 5Chiquete
- 6Lira E.
- 7Ibanez N
- 8Palavecino
- 11Ebere
- 16Marquez
- 19Rodriguez Ca.
- 20Paradela J.
- 23Mier K.
- Levi (Missing Player)
- Morales (Missing Player)
League table
Mexico. Liga MX| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Deportivo Toluca | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 18:6 | 19 |
| 2 |  Guadalajara | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 15:6 | 17 |
| 3 |  Club America | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 15:6 | 16 |
| 4 | Cruz Azul | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 16:14 | 15 |
| 5 |  Puebla | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 11:11 | 14 |
| 6 |  Queretaro | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 10:7 | 13 |
| 7 |  Leon | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 11:9 | 13 |
| 8 |  Tijuana | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 10:8 | 13 |
| 9 |  Atlas Guadalajara | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 12:14 | 13 |
| 10 |  Pachuca | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 13:8 | 11 |
| 11 |  Pumas UNAM | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 11:12 | 11 |
| 12 | Monterrey | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 13:10 | 10 |
| 13 |  Club Necaxa | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 9:13 | 8 |
| 14 |  Atlante | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 8:13 | 8 |
| 15 |  Tigres de la UANL | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 9:13 | 7 |
| 16 |  Atletico San Luis | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 8:15 | 6 |
| 17 |  Santos Laguna | 8 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 6:13 | 4 |
| 18 |  Juarez | 9 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 6:23 | 3 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.