Nashville vs Chicago Fire: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Nashvillevs
Chicago FireThe model puts Nashville at 57%. The model leans toward Nashville. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Nashville.
- +Nashville score more per game (3.0 at home vs 2.0 away).
- +Nashville creates more chances (14 vs 12 shots per game).
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
- +Chicago Fire are dealing with notable absentees.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Nashville have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Chicago Fire have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Nashville have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Nashville will be without Madrigal W..
- Chicago Fire will be without Mbokazi, Saletros A., Russo Franco.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 4 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 5 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Nashville at 57%. The model puts the draw at 22%. The model puts Chicago Fire at 21%. The model's most likely scoreline is 3-1.
The market leans toward Nashville. Nashville is priced at 1.8. The draw is priced at 4.02. Chicago Fire is priced at 4.02.
Nashville have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings. Chicago Fire have won 6 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 2 of their head-to-head meetings.
Nashville have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. Chicago Fire have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
Nashville average 3 goals per game this season. Nashville average 56% possession. Chicago Fire average 2 goals per game this season. Chicago Fire average 51% possession.
The model gives 70% for both teams to score. The model gives 82% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Nashville or Chicago Fire?
Our model rates Nashville as the most likely outcome at 57% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Nashville vs Chicago Fire?
A scoreline around 3-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 12 meetings: 4 Nashville wins, 2 draws, 6 Chicago Fire wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
Match statistics
Nashville
- 3Woledzi
- 4Palacios Murillo
- 7Espinosa
- 8Yazbek
- 9Surridge
- 10Mukhtar H.
- 11Saad
- 20Tagseth
- 27Baker-Whiting
- 31Nahar
- 99Schwake
- Madrigal W. (Missing Player)
Chicago Fire
- 1Brady
- 3Elliott J.
- 7Haile Selassie
- 9Lewandowski
- 11Zinckernagel
- 12Dithejane
- 15Gutman A.
- 24Dean
- 32Allen
- 35Oregel
- 42Davilla
- Mbokazi (Missing Player)
- Saletros A. (Questionable)
- Russo Franco (Missing Player)
League table
USA. MLS| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Vancouver Whitecaps | 24 | 14 | 6 | 4 | 53:23 | 46 |
| 2 |  Houston Dynamo | 25 | 13 | 8 | 4 | 32:28 | 43 |
| 3 |  Dallas | 25 | 12 | 6 | 7 | 49:42 | 43 |
| 4 |  San Jose Earthquakes | 25 | 12 | 8 | 5 | 44:36 | 41 |
| 5 |  St. Louis City | 25 | 11 | 6 | 8 | 42:35 | 41 |
| 6 |  Los Angeles | 26 | 11 | 8 | 7 | 41:27 | 40 |
| 7 |  Colorado Rapids | 25 | 11 | 12 | 2 | 33:32 | 35 |
| 8 |  Portland Timbers | 25 | 9 | 11 | 5 | 47:47 | 32 |
| 9 |  San Diego | 25 | 8 | 11 | 6 | 42:42 | 30 |
| 10 |  Los Angeles Galaxy | 26 | 7 | 10 | 9 | 31:40 | 30 |
| 11 |  Real Salt Lake | 24 | 8 | 11 | 5 | 37:39 | 29 |
| 12 |  Minnesota United | 25 | 7 | 10 | 8 | 37:43 | 29 |
| 13 |  Austin | 25 | 7 | 10 | 8 | 32:44 | 29 |
| 14 |  Seattle Sounders | 23 | 7 | 9 | 7 | 25:30 | 28 |
| 15 |  Sporting Kansas City | 24 | 5 | 16 | 3 | 26:59 | 18 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.