Dallas vs Austin: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Dallasvs
AustinThe model puts Dallas at 59%. The model leans toward Dallas. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Dallas.
- +Dallas score more per game (2.0 at home vs 1.0 away).
- −The head-to-head record favours Austin (3-3-9).
- +Dallas creates more chances (12 vs 9 shots per game).
- −Dallas are dealing with notable absentees.
- +Austin are dealing with notable absentees.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Dallas have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Austin have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Dallas have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Dallas will be without Geovane, Anderson Ju., Garcia.
- Austin will be without Biro, Uzuni.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 5 | 2 | |||
| 1 | 11 | 9 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 11 | 10 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 8 | 7 | 3 | |||
| 4 | 4 | 4 | 2 | |||
| 5 | 2 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Dallas at 59%. The model puts the draw at 19%. The model puts Austin at 22%. The model's most likely scoreline is 2-0.
The market leans toward Dallas. Dallas is priced at 1.685. The draw is priced at 4.18. Austin is priced at 4.54.
Dallas have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings. Austin have won 9 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 3 of their head-to-head meetings.
Dallas have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Austin have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
Dallas average 2 goals per game this season. Dallas average 43% possession. Austin average 1 goals per game this season. Austin average 43% possession.
The model gives 51% for both teams to score. The model gives 57% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Dallas or Austin?
Our model rates Dallas as the most likely outcome at 59% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Dallas vs Austin?
A scoreline around 2-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 3 Dallas wins, 3 draws, 9 Austin wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
Match statistics
Dallas
- 3Urhoghide
- 6Binyamin Be.
- 10Moreno
- 17Ramiro Ben.
- 18Moore Sh.
- 21Valiente J.
- 23Farrington
- 25Ibeagha S.
- 40Sirois
- 55Kaick da Silva Ferreira
- 77Kamungo
- Geovane (Questionable)
- Anderson Ju. (Missing Player)
- Garcia (Questionable)
Austin
- 1Stuver
- 3Desler
- 9Vazquez B.
- 11Torres
- 14Sabovic
- 15Bell
- 17Gallagher
- 23Kolmanic
- 24Aperte J.
- 30Rosales Jo.
- 38Torres
- Biro (Missing Player)
- Uzuni (Missing Player)
League table
USA. MLS| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Vancouver Whitecaps | 24 | 14 | 6 | 4 | 53:23 | 46 |
| 2 |  Houston Dynamo | 25 | 13 | 8 | 4 | 32:28 | 43 |
| 3 | Dallas | 25 | 12 | 6 | 7 | 49:42 | 43 |
| 4 |  San Jose Earthquakes | 25 | 12 | 8 | 5 | 44:36 | 41 |
| 5 |  St. Louis City | 25 | 11 | 6 | 8 | 42:35 | 41 |
| 6 |  Los Angeles | 26 | 11 | 8 | 7 | 41:27 | 40 |
| 7 |  Colorado Rapids | 25 | 11 | 12 | 2 | 33:32 | 35 |
| 8 |  Portland Timbers | 25 | 9 | 11 | 5 | 47:47 | 32 |
| 9 |  San Diego | 25 | 8 | 11 | 6 | 42:42 | 30 |
| 10 |  Los Angeles Galaxy | 26 | 7 | 10 | 9 | 31:40 | 30 |
| 11 |  Real Salt Lake | 24 | 8 | 11 | 5 | 37:39 | 29 |
| 12 |  Minnesota United | 25 | 7 | 10 | 8 | 37:43 | 29 |
| 13 | Austin | 25 | 7 | 10 | 8 | 32:44 | 29 |
| 14 |  Seattle Sounders | 23 | 7 | 9 | 7 | 25:30 | 28 |
| 15 |  Sporting Kansas City | 24 | 5 | 16 | 3 | 26:59 | 18 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.