New England Revolution vs Orlando City: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
New England Revolutionvs
Orlando CityThe model puts New England Revolution at 56%. The model leans toward New England Revolution. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours New England Revolution.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
- −New England Revolution are dealing with notable absentees.
- +Orlando City are dealing with notable absentees.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- New England Revolution have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Orlando City have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- New England Revolution have won 5 of the head-to-head meetings.
- New England Revolution will be without Campana L., Harrison J., Yusuf Al..
- Orlando City will be without Marin, Ojeda.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 | |||
| 1 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 7 | 8 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 4 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 2 | 3 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts New England Revolution at 56%. The model puts the draw at 21%. The model puts Orlando City at 23%. The model's most likely scoreline is 2-1.
The market leans toward New England Revolution. New England Revolution is priced at 1.736. The draw is priced at 4.34. Orlando City is priced at 4.06.
New England Revolution have won 5 of the head-to-head meetings. Orlando City have won 6 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 4 of their head-to-head meetings.
New England Revolution have 3 wins in their last 5 matches. New England Revolution are on 2 wins in a row. Orlando City have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
New England Revolution average 2 goals per game this season. New England Revolution average 51% possession. Orlando City average 2 goals per game this season. Orlando City average 48% possession.
The model gives 63% for both teams to score. The model gives 72% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, New England Revolution or Orlando City?
Our model rates New England Revolution as the most likely outcome at 56% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for New England Revolution vs Orlando City?
A scoreline around 2-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 5 New England Revolution wins, 4 draws, 6 Orlando City wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
Match statistics
New England Revolution
- 2Fofana
- 8Polster
- 10Gil C.
- 14Yueill
- 16Gazdag
- 21Raines
- 22Kohler
- 23Sands
- 25Miller
- 30Turner M.
- 99Turgeman
- Campana L. (Missing Player)
- Harrison J. (Questionable)
- Yusuf Al. (Questionable)
Orlando City
- 4Brekalo
- 5Luis Otavio Costa de Aquino
- 6Jansson
- 7Griezmann
- 9Dike D.
- 14Spicer
- 16Cartagena W.
- 24Dorsey G.
- 44Rheine
- 71Crepeau
- 87Pasalic
- Marin (Questionable)
- Ojeda (Missing Player)
League table
USA. MLS| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Vancouver Whitecaps | 24 | 14 | 6 | 4 | 53:23 | 46 |
| 2 |  Houston Dynamo | 25 | 13 | 8 | 4 | 32:28 | 43 |
| 3 |  Dallas | 25 | 12 | 6 | 7 | 49:42 | 43 |
| 4 |  San Jose Earthquakes | 25 | 12 | 8 | 5 | 44:36 | 41 |
| 5 |  St. Louis City | 25 | 11 | 6 | 8 | 42:35 | 41 |
| 6 |  Los Angeles | 26 | 11 | 8 | 7 | 41:27 | 40 |
| 7 |  Colorado Rapids | 25 | 11 | 12 | 2 | 33:32 | 35 |
| 8 |  Portland Timbers | 25 | 9 | 11 | 5 | 47:47 | 32 |
| 9 |  San Diego | 25 | 8 | 11 | 6 | 42:42 | 30 |
| 10 |  Los Angeles Galaxy | 26 | 7 | 10 | 9 | 31:40 | 30 |
| 11 |  Real Salt Lake | 24 | 8 | 11 | 5 | 37:39 | 29 |
| 12 |  Minnesota United | 25 | 7 | 10 | 8 | 37:43 | 29 |
| 13 |  Austin | 25 | 7 | 10 | 8 | 32:44 | 29 |
| 14 |  Seattle Sounders | 23 | 7 | 9 | 7 | 25:30 | 28 |
| 15 |  Sporting Kansas City | 24 | 5 | 16 | 3 | 26:59 | 18 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.