Inter Miami vs San Diego: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Inter Miamivs
San DiegoThe model puts Inter Miami at 66%. The model leans toward Inter Miami. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Inter Miami score more per game (3.0 at home vs 1.0 away).
- +Inter Miami creates more chances (17 vs 10 shots per game).
- −Inter Miami are dealing with notable absentees.
- +San Diego are dealing with notable absentees.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Inter Miami will be without Allende, Silvetti, Fray Ia..
- San Diego will be without Gabriel Pirani, Verhoeven O., Ingvartsen, Mighten.
- Inter Miami is priced at 1.47.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2 | 2 | ||||
| 1 | 7 | 6 | 3 | |||
| 2 | 10 | 9 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 9 | 8 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 7 | 6 | 3 | |||
| 5 | 4 | 3 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Inter Miami at 66%. The model puts the draw at 16%. The model puts San Diego at 17%. The model's most likely scoreline is 2-0.
The market leans toward Inter Miami. Inter Miami is priced at 1.47. The draw is priced at 5.25. San Diego is priced at 5.45.
Inter Miami average 3 goals per game this season. Inter Miami average 58% possession. San Diego average 1 goals per game this season. San Diego average 61% possession.
The model gives 55% for both teams to score. The model gives 72% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Inter Miami or San Diego?
Our model rates Inter Miami as the most likely outcome at 66% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Inter Miami vs San Diego?
A scoreline around 2-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
Match statistics
Inter Miami
- 4Mura F.
- 5Casemiro
- 7De Paul
- 8Segovia
- 9Suarez L.
- 10Messi
- 15Caicedo
- 19Berterame
- 37Falcon M.
- 42Bright
- 97St Clair D.
- Allende (Missing Player)
- Silvetti (Missing Player)
- Fray Ia. (Questionable)
San Diego
- 1Dos Santos Ca.
- 5Sargeant
- 6Tverskov
- 8Valakari O.
- 10Dreyer
- 20Godoy
- 26Duah
- 32Murphy
- 90Pellegrino A.
- 97Mcvey Chr.
- 99Achouri Mo.
- Gabriel Pirani (Missing Player)
- Verhoeven O. (Missing Player)
- Ingvartsen (Missing Player)
- Mighten (Missing Player)
League table
USA. MLS| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Vancouver Whitecaps | 24 | 14 | 6 | 4 | 53:23 | 46 |
| 2 |  Houston Dynamo | 25 | 13 | 8 | 4 | 32:28 | 43 |
| 3 |  Dallas | 25 | 12 | 6 | 7 | 49:42 | 43 |
| 4 |  San Jose Earthquakes | 25 | 12 | 8 | 5 | 44:36 | 41 |
| 5 |  St. Louis City | 25 | 11 | 6 | 8 | 42:35 | 41 |
| 6 |  Los Angeles | 26 | 11 | 8 | 7 | 41:27 | 40 |
| 7 |  Colorado Rapids | 25 | 11 | 12 | 2 | 33:32 | 35 |
| 8 |  Portland Timbers | 25 | 9 | 11 | 5 | 47:47 | 32 |
| 9 | San Diego | 25 | 8 | 11 | 6 | 42:42 | 30 |
| 10 |  Los Angeles Galaxy | 26 | 7 | 10 | 9 | 31:40 | 30 |
| 11 |  Real Salt Lake | 24 | 8 | 11 | 5 | 37:39 | 29 |
| 12 |  Minnesota United | 25 | 7 | 10 | 8 | 37:43 | 29 |
| 13 |  Austin | 25 | 7 | 10 | 8 | 32:44 | 29 |
| 14 |  Seattle Sounders | 23 | 7 | 9 | 7 | 25:30 | 28 |
| 15 |  Sporting Kansas City | 24 | 5 | 16 | 3 | 26:59 | 18 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.