Germany. 2. Bundesliga

Arminia Bielefeld vs 1. Heidenheim: Prediction, Odds & Analysis

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Arminia Bielefeldvs

1. Heidenheim

Our predictionArminia Bielefeld to win

Model score: Low · 28/100

Score hint: 2-1

The model puts Arminia Bielefeld at 42%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: low.

Why this prediction

+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.

−Recent form favours 1. Heidenheim.
−The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
+1. Heidenheim are dealing with notable absentees.

Win probabilities

1 · Arminia Bielefeld42%

Draw25%

2 · 1. Heidenheim33%

1 · Arminia BielefeldDraw2 · 1. Heidenheim

Full team comparison →

Model vs market

Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.

BTTSYes1.47+6.5%

1X21. Heidenheim3.02+1.8%

1X2Draw3.62-0.6%

1X2Arminia Bielefeld2.16-1.1%

BTTSNo2.50-6.5%

Our model BookmakerPositive edge = model disagreement, not a value bet. Not betting advice.

Expected goals

2.10Arminia Bielefeld

1.571. Heidenheim

Over 2.5 goals71%

Both teams to score69%

Recent form

Arminia BielefeldLDLLW

1. HeidenheimWWWLL

Team strength rating

Arminia Bielefeld

1. Heidenheim

Most likely scorelines

2-18.8%

1-18.4%

2-26.9%

1-26.6%

3-16.2%

2-05.6%

Match DNA

Arminia Bielefeld 1. Heidenheim

Key points

Arminia Bielefeld have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
1. Heidenheim have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
Arminia Bielefeld have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings.
Arminia Bielefeld will be without Daniel Richter.
1. Heidenheim will be without Breunig, Conteh S..

Betting angles

MarketPickOddsAssessment

1X2Arminia Bielefeld win2.16Fair (-1.1%)

Double chanceArminia Bielefeld or draw—Info

Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.

Scoreline probability matrix

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	3	4	3	2
1	5	8	7	3	1
2	6	9	7	4	1
3	4	6	5	3
4	2	3	3	1
5		1	1

Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.

Full analysis

The model puts Arminia Bielefeld at 42%. The model puts the draw at 25%. The model puts 1. Heidenheim at 33%. The model's most likely scoreline is 2-1.

The market leans toward Arminia Bielefeld. Arminia Bielefeld is priced at 2.16. The draw is priced at 3.62. 1. Heidenheim is priced at 3.025.

Arminia Bielefeld have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings. 1. Heidenheim have won 5 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 7 of their head-to-head meetings.

Arminia Bielefeld have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. 1. Heidenheim have 3 wins in their last 5 matches. 1. Heidenheim are on 3 wins in a row.

Arminia Bielefeld average 3 goals per game this season. Arminia Bielefeld average 42% possession. 1. Heidenheim average 1 goals per game this season. 1. Heidenheim average 40% possession.

The model gives 69% for both teams to score. The model gives 71% for over 2.5 goals.

This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.

Prediction Track Record →Methodology →Model card →

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite, Arminia Bielefeld or 1. Heidenheim?

Our model rates Arminia Bielefeld as the most likely outcome at 42% probability.

What's a likely scoreline for Arminia Bielefeld vs 1. Heidenheim?

A scoreline around 2-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.

What's the head-to-head record?

In the last 15 meetings: 3 Arminia Bielefeld wins, 7 draws, 5 1. Heidenheim wins.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.

See odds at bookmakers

Odds movement

Home 2.16 Draw 3.62 Away 3.02

Match statistics

Player of the matchFohrenbach1. Heidenheim8.8