Energie Cottbus vs St. Pauli: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Energie Cottbusvs
St. PauliThe model puts St. Pauli at 44%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: low.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
- +Energie Cottbus are dealing with notable absentees.
- −St. Pauli are dealing with notable absentees.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Energie Cottbus have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- St. Pauli have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Energie Cottbus have won 5 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Energie Cottbus will be without Engelhardt, Gutta J..
- St. Pauli will be without Jansson Ro., Pereira Ma., Thordarson, Hrgota.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | |
| 1 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 2 |
| 2 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 2 |
| 3 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 |
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Energie Cottbus at 31%. The model puts the draw at 25%. The model puts St. Pauli at 44%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-2.
The market leans toward St. Pauli. Energie Cottbus is priced at 3.055. The draw is priced at 3.78. St. Pauli is priced at 2.09.
Energie Cottbus have won 5 of the head-to-head meetings. St. Pauli have won 6 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 4 of their head-to-head meetings.
Energie Cottbus have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. St. Pauli have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
Energie Cottbus average 3 goals per game this season. Energie Cottbus average 50% possession. St. Pauli average 2 goals per game this season. St. Pauli average 47% possession.
The model gives 78% for both teams to score. The model gives 81% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Energie Cottbus or St. Pauli?
Our model rates St. Pauli as the most likely outcome at 44% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Energie Cottbus vs St. Pauli?
A scoreline around 1-2 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 5 Energie Cottbus wins, 4 draws, 6 St. Pauli wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
Odds movement
Match statistics
Energie Cottbus
- 1Lotka
- 2Manu
- 3Rorig
- 7Kinsombi
- 8Michelbrink
- 9Copado
- 10Cigerci
- 20Borgmann
- 21Erlein
- 31Butler
- 32Bittencourt L.
- Engelhardt (Missing Player)
- Gutta J. (Missing Player)
St. Pauli
- 1Voll
- 4Nemeth D.
- 6Mathisen M.
- 11Pyrka
- 15Ando
- 16Fujita Jo.
- 18Hara Ta.
- 19Kaars
- 20Rasmussen Mat.
- 23Oppie
- 24Metcalfe C.
- Jansson Ro. (Missing Player)
- Pereira Ma. (Missing Player)
- Thordarson (Missing Player)
- Hrgota (Missing Player)
League table
Germany. 2. Bundesliga| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Hertha BSC | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 15:6 | 15 |
| 2 |  Nurnberg | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 15:6 | 13 |
| 3 |  1. Heidenheim | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 12:10 | 12 |
| 4 |  VfL Wolfsburg | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 15:8 | 11 |
| 5 |  1. Magdeburg | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 11:9 | 10 |
| 6 |  1. Kaiserslautern | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 5:4 | 8 |
| 7 | Energie Cottbus | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 13:12 | 7 |
| 8 |  VfL Bochum | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 4:4 | 7 |
| 9 | St. Pauli | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 7:7 | 6 |
| 10 |  Greuther Furth | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 9:11 | 6 |
| 11 |  VfL Osnabruck | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 8:11 | 6 |
| 12 |  Karlsruher | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 6:11 | 5 |
| 13 |  Eintracht Braunschweig | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 12:12 | 4 |
| 14 |  Arminia Bielefeld | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 8:10 | 4 |
| 15 |  Hannover 96 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 5:8 | 4 |
| 16 |  Dynamo Dresden | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 7:12 | 4 |
| 17 |  Darmstadt 98 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 5:13 | 4 |
| 18 |  Holstein | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 6:9 | 3 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.