Club Atletico Sarmiento Junin vs River Plate Buenos Aires: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Club Atletico Sarmiento Juninvs
River Plate Buenos AiresThe model puts River Plate Buenos Aires at 50%. The model leans toward River Plate Buenos Aires. Confidence: low.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −Recent form favours Club Atletico Sarmiento Junin.
- −The head-to-head record favours Club Atletico Sarmiento Junin (6-3-2).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Club Atletico Sarmiento Junin have 4 wins in their last 5 matches.
- River Plate Buenos Aires have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Club Atletico Sarmiento Junin have won 6 of the head-to-head meetings.
- River Plate Buenos Aires is priced at 1.763.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 12 | 9 | 5 | 2 | |
| 1 | 8 | 12 | 9 | 5 | 2 | |
| 2 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | |||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Club Atletico Sarmiento Junin at 25%. The model puts the draw at 26%. The model puts River Plate Buenos Aires at 50%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1.
The market leans toward River Plate Buenos Aires. Club Atletico Sarmiento Junin is priced at 5.25. The draw is priced at 3.385. River Plate Buenos Aires is priced at 1.763.
Club Atletico Sarmiento Junin have won 6 of the head-to-head meetings. River Plate Buenos Aires have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 3 of their head-to-head meetings.
Club Atletico Sarmiento Junin have 4 wins in their last 5 matches. Club Atletico Sarmiento Junin are on 2 wins in a row. River Plate Buenos Aires have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 50% for both teams to score. The model gives 47% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Club Atletico Sarmiento Junin or River Plate Buenos Aires?
Our model rates River Plate Buenos Aires as the most likely outcome at 50% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Club Atletico Sarmiento Junin vs River Plate Buenos Aires?
A scoreline around 0-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 11 meetings: 6 Club Atletico Sarmiento Junin wins, 3 draws, 2 River Plate Buenos Aires wins.
League table
Argentina. Primera Division| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Instituto Atletico Central Cordoba | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 13:7 | 22 |
| 2 |  Defensa y Justicia | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 13:11 | 18 |
| 3 |  Club Atletico Gimnasia y Esgrima | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 14:9 | 17 |
| 4 |  Velez Sarsfield | 9 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 12:7 | 17 |
| 5 |  Boca Juniors | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 14:11 | 17 |
| 6 |  CA Independiente Avellaneda | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 10:8 | 17 |
| 7 |  Newell's Old Boys | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 11:8 | 16 |
| 8 |  Club Atletico Lanus | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 11:8 | 13 |
| 9 |  Union de Santa Fe | 10 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 17:16 | 13 |
| 10 |  San Lorenzo de Almagro | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 4:8 | 11 |
| 11 |  Estudiantes de La Plata | 9 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 9:9 | 10 |
| 12 |  Deportivo Riestra | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 8:10 | 10 |
| 13 |  Platense | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 9:15 | 9 |
| 14 |  Talleres de Cordoba | 10 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 11:17 | 8 |
| 15 |  Central Cordoba de Santiago | 10 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 7:13 | 8 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.