Defensa y Justicia vs San Lorenzo de Almagro: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Defensa y Justiciavs
San Lorenzo de AlmagroThe model puts Defensa y Justicia at 44%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Defensa y Justicia.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Defensa y Justicia have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- San Lorenzo de Almagro have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Defensa y Justicia have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Defensa y Justicia is priced at 2.287.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 12 | 12 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 9 | 10 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 5 | 5 | 3 | |||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Defensa y Justicia at 44%. The model puts the draw at 30%. The model puts San Lorenzo de Almagro at 26%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market frames this as a close contest. Defensa y Justicia is priced at 2.287. The draw is priced at 3.05. San Lorenzo de Almagro is priced at 3.47.
Defensa y Justicia have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings. San Lorenzo de Almagro have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings.
Defensa y Justicia have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. San Lorenzo de Almagro have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 51% for both teams to score. The model gives 49% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Defensa y Justicia or San Lorenzo de Almagro?
Our model rates Defensa y Justicia as the most likely outcome at 44% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Defensa y Justicia vs San Lorenzo de Almagro?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 5 meetings: 3 Defensa y Justicia wins, 0 draws, 2 San Lorenzo de Almagro wins.
League table
Argentina. Primera Division| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Instituto Atletico Central Cordoba | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 13:7 | 22 |
| 2 | Defensa y Justicia | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 13:11 | 18 |
| 3 |  Club Atletico Gimnasia y Esgrima | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 14:9 | 17 |
| 4 |  Velez Sarsfield | 9 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 12:7 | 17 |
| 5 |  Boca Juniors | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 14:11 | 17 |
| 6 |  CA Independiente Avellaneda | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 10:8 | 17 |
| 7 |  Newell's Old Boys | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 11:8 | 16 |
| 8 |  Club Atletico Lanus | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 11:8 | 13 |
| 9 |  Union de Santa Fe | 10 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 17:16 | 13 |
| 10 | San Lorenzo de Almagro | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 4:8 | 11 |
| 11 |  Estudiantes de La Plata | 9 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 9:9 | 10 |
| 12 |  Deportivo Riestra | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 8:10 | 10 |
| 13 |  Platense | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 9:15 | 9 |
| 14 |  Talleres de Cordoba | 10 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 11:17 | 8 |
| 15 |  Central Cordoba de Santiago | 10 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 7:13 | 8 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.