Newell's Old Boys vs Club Atletico Lanus: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Newell's Old Boysvs
Club Atletico LanusThe model puts Club Atletico Lanus at 37%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: low.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +The head-to-head record favours Club Atletico Lanus (4-2-9).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Newell's Old Boys have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Club Atletico Lanus have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Newell's Old Boys have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Club Atletico Lanus is priced at 2.68.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 10 | 6 | 3 | ||
| 1 | 10 | 13 | 8 | 4 | 1 | |
| 2 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 1 | |||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Newell's Old Boys at 32%. The model puts the draw at 31%. The model puts Club Atletico Lanus at 37%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1.
The market frames this as a close contest. Newell's Old Boys is priced at 2.965. The draw is priced at 2.92. Club Atletico Lanus is priced at 2.68.
Newell's Old Boys have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings. Club Atletico Lanus have won 9 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 2 of their head-to-head meetings.
Newell's Old Boys have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Club Atletico Lanus have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 53% for both teams to score. The model gives 48% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Newell's Old Boys or Club Atletico Lanus?
Our model rates Club Atletico Lanus as the most likely outcome at 37% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Newell's Old Boys vs Club Atletico Lanus?
A scoreline around 0-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 4 Newell's Old Boys wins, 2 draws, 9 Club Atletico Lanus wins.
League table
Argentina. Primera Division| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Instituto Atletico Central Cordoba | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 13:7 | 22 |
| 2 |  Defensa y Justicia | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 13:11 | 18 |
| 3 |  Club Atletico Gimnasia y Esgrima | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 14:9 | 17 |
| 4 |  Velez Sarsfield | 9 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 12:7 | 17 |
| 5 |  Boca Juniors | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 14:11 | 17 |
| 6 |  CA Independiente Avellaneda | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 10:8 | 17 |
| 7 | Newell's Old Boys | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 11:8 | 16 |
| 8 | Club Atletico Lanus | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 11:8 | 13 |
| 9 |  Union de Santa Fe | 10 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 17:16 | 13 |
| 10 |  San Lorenzo de Almagro | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 4:8 | 11 |
| 11 |  Estudiantes de La Plata | 9 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 9:9 | 10 |
| 12 |  Deportivo Riestra | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 8:10 | 10 |
| 13 |  Platense | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 9:15 | 9 |
| 14 |  Talleres de Cordoba | 10 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 11:17 | 8 |
| 15 |  Central Cordoba de Santiago | 10 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 7:13 | 8 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.