Independiente Rivadavia vs Gimnasia y Esgrima La Plata: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Independiente Rivadaviavs
Gimnasia y Esgrima La PlataThe model puts Independiente Rivadavia at 54%. The model leans toward Independiente Rivadavia. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −The head-to-head record favours Gimnasia y Esgrima La Plata (1-2-4).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Independiente Rivadavia have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Gimnasia y Esgrima La Plata have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Independiente Rivadavia have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Independiente Rivadavia is priced at 1.715.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 6 | 2 | |||
| 1 | 13 | 11 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 12 | 10 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 7 | 6 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Independiente Rivadavia at 54%. The model puts the draw at 26%. The model puts Gimnasia y Esgrima La Plata at 20%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward Independiente Rivadavia. Independiente Rivadavia is priced at 1.715. The draw is priced at 3.56. Gimnasia y Esgrima La Plata is priced at 5.25.
Independiente Rivadavia have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. Gimnasia y Esgrima La Plata have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 2 of their head-to-head meetings.
Independiente Rivadavia have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Gimnasia y Esgrima La Plata have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 47% for both teams to score. The model gives 49% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Independiente Rivadavia or Gimnasia y Esgrima La Plata?
Our model rates Independiente Rivadavia as the most likely outcome at 54% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Independiente Rivadavia vs Gimnasia y Esgrima La Plata?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 7 meetings: 1 Independiente Rivadavia wins, 2 draws, 4 Gimnasia y Esgrima La Plata wins.
League table
Argentina. Primera Division| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Instituto Atletico Central Cordoba | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 13:7 | 22 |
| 2 |  Defensa y Justicia | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 13:11 | 18 |
| 3 |  Club Atletico Gimnasia y Esgrima | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 14:9 | 17 |
| 4 |  Velez Sarsfield | 9 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 12:7 | 17 |
| 5 |  Boca Juniors | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 14:11 | 17 |
| 6 |  CA Independiente Avellaneda | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 10:8 | 17 |
| 7 |  Newell's Old Boys | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 11:8 | 16 |
| 8 |  Club Atletico Lanus | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 11:8 | 13 |
| 9 |  Union de Santa Fe | 10 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 17:16 | 13 |
| 10 |  San Lorenzo de Almagro | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 4:8 | 11 |
| 11 |  Estudiantes de La Plata | 9 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 9:9 | 10 |
| 12 |  Deportivo Riestra | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 8:10 | 10 |
| 13 |  Platense | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 9:15 | 9 |
| 14 |  Talleres de Cordoba | 10 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 11:17 | 8 |
| 15 |  Central Cordoba de Santiago | 10 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 7:13 | 8 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.