Orenburg vs Dynamo Makhachkala: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Orenburgvs
Dynamo MakhachkalaThe model puts Orenburg at 43%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +The head-to-head record favours Orenburg (2-1-1).
Win probabilities
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Orenburg have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Dynamo Makhachkala have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Orenburg have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Orenburg is priced at 2.296.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 8 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 11 | 12 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 9 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 5 | 5 | 3 | |||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | ||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Full analysis
The model puts Orenburg at 43%. The model puts the draw at 28%. The model puts Dynamo Makhachkala at 29%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market frames this as a close contest. Orenburg is priced at 2.296. The draw is priced at 3.3. Dynamo Makhachkala is priced at 3.184.
Orenburg have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. Dynamo Makhachkala have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 1 of their head-to-head meetings.
Orenburg have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. Dynamo Makhachkala have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 52% for both teams to score. The model gives 49% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Orenburg or Dynamo Makhachkala?
Our model rates Orenburg as the most likely outcome at 43% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Orenburg vs Dynamo Makhachkala?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 4 meetings: 2 Orenburg wins, 1 draws, 1 Dynamo Makhachkala wins.
League table
Russia. Premier League| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Krasnodar | 9 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 14:7 | 21 |
| 2 |  Dynamo Moscow | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 14:8 | 19 |
| 3 |  CSKA Moscow | 9 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 15:9 | 19 |
| 4 |  Spartak Moscow | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 16:7 | 19 |
| 5 |  Zenit Saint Petersburg | 9 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 19:9 | 18 |
| 6 |  Rubin Kazan | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 12:11 | 12 |
| 7 | Dynamo Makhachkala | 9 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 15:16 | 12 |
| 8 |  Baltika Kaliningrad | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 14:12 | 11 |
| 9 |  Krylia Sovetov | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 13:14 | 11 |
| 10 |  Akhmat | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 13:13 | 10 |
| 11 | Orenburg | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 7:10 | 9 |
| 12 |  Rostov | 9 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 10:17 | 8 |
| 13 |  Akron Tolyatti | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 11:18 | 8 |
| 14 |  Lokomotiv Moscow | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 8:11 | 7 |
| 15 |  Rodina Moscow | 9 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 10:22 | 5 |
| 16 |  Fakel Voronezh | 9 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 6:13 | 3 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.