Fakel Voronezh vs Lokomotiv Moscow: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Fakel Voronezhvs
Lokomotiv MoscowThe model puts Lokomotiv Moscow at 40%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: low.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +The head-to-head record favours Lokomotiv Moscow (3-1-9).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Fakel Voronezh have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Lokomotiv Moscow have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Fakel Voronezh have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Lokomotiv Moscow is priced at 2.512.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 10 | 7 | 3 | ||
| 1 | 9 | 13 | 8 | 4 | 1 | |
| 2 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 1 | |||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Fakel Voronezh at 32%. The model puts the draw at 28%. The model puts Lokomotiv Moscow at 40%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1.
The market frames this as a close contest. Fakel Voronezh is priced at 2.9. The draw is priced at 3.22. Lokomotiv Moscow is priced at 2.512.
Fakel Voronezh have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings. Lokomotiv Moscow have won 9 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 1 of their head-to-head meetings.
Fakel Voronezh have 0 wins in their last 5 matches. Lokomotiv Moscow have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 53% for both teams to score. The model gives 48% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Fakel Voronezh or Lokomotiv Moscow?
Our model rates Lokomotiv Moscow as the most likely outcome at 40% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Fakel Voronezh vs Lokomotiv Moscow?
A scoreline around 0-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 13 meetings: 3 Fakel Voronezh wins, 1 draws, 9 Lokomotiv Moscow wins.
League table
Russia. Premier League| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Krasnodar | 9 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 14:7 | 21 |
| 2 |  Dynamo Moscow | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 14:8 | 19 |
| 3 |  CSKA Moscow | 9 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 15:9 | 19 |
| 4 |  Spartak Moscow | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 16:7 | 19 |
| 5 |  Zenit Saint Petersburg | 9 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 19:9 | 18 |
| 6 |  Rubin Kazan | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 12:11 | 12 |
| 7 |  Dynamo Makhachkala | 9 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 15:16 | 12 |
| 8 |  Baltika Kaliningrad | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 14:12 | 11 |
| 9 |  Krylia Sovetov | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 13:14 | 11 |
| 10 |  Akhmat | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 13:13 | 10 |
| 11 |  Orenburg | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 7:10 | 9 |
| 12 |  Rostov | 9 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 10:17 | 8 |
| 13 |  Akron Tolyatti | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 11:18 | 8 |
| 14 | Lokomotiv Moscow | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 8:11 | 7 |
| 15 |  Rodina Moscow | 9 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 10:22 | 5 |
| 16 | Fakel Voronezh | 9 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 6:13 | 3 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.