Pachuca vs Tijuana: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Pachucavs
TijuanaThe model puts Pachuca at 51%. The model leans toward Pachuca. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −Recent form favours Tijuana.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
- −Pachuca are dealing with notable absentees.
- +Tijuana are dealing with notable absentees.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Pachuca have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Tijuana have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Pachuca have won 6 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Pachuca will be without Micolta, Dominguez.
- Tijuana will be without Elias Manoel de Paula, Boya F., Fernandez R..
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 7 | 3 | |||
| 1 | 12 | 11 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 11 | 10 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 6 | 6 | 3 | |||
| 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Pachuca at 51%. The model puts the draw at 24%. The model puts Tijuana at 25%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward Pachuca. Pachuca is priced at 1.74. The draw is priced at 3.68. Tijuana is priced at 4.3.
Pachuca have won 6 of the head-to-head meetings. Tijuana have won 8 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 1 of their head-to-head meetings.
Pachuca have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. Tijuana have 3 wins in their last 5 matches. Tijuana are on 2 wins in a row.
The model gives 49% for both teams to score. The model gives 49% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Pachuca or Tijuana?
Our model rates Pachuca as the most likely outcome at 51% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Pachuca vs Tijuana?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 6 Pachuca wins, 1 draws, 8 Tijuana wins.
Match statistics
Pachuca
- 2Barreto S.
- 4dos Santos Bauermann
- 11Idrissi
- 14Sanchez
- 15Venegas F.
- 16Rivera Chri.
- 23Rondon S.
- 25Moreno
- 26Bautista
- 29Kenedy
- 30Rodriguez
- Micolta (Questionable)
- Dominguez (Missing Player)
Tijuana
- 2Rodriguez Anto.
- 6Molina
- 7Preciado Ad.
- 8Tona
- 9El Ghezouani
- 10Mora Zambrano
- 12Porozo Vernaza
- 15Rivera
- 16Vega
- 17Arciga
- 18Mejia M. A.
- Elias Manoel de Paula (Questionable)
- Boya F. (Missing Player)
- Fernandez R. (Missing Player)
League table
Mexico. Liga MX| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Deportivo Toluca | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 18:6 | 19 |
| 2 |  Guadalajara | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 15:6 | 17 |
| 3 |  Club America | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 15:6 | 16 |
| 4 |  Cruz Azul | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 16:14 | 15 |
| 5 |  Puebla | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 11:11 | 14 |
| 6 |  Atlas Guadalajara | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 13:15 | 14 |
| 7 |  Queretaro | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 10:7 | 13 |
| 8 |  Leon | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 11:9 | 13 |
| 9 | Tijuana | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 10:8 | 13 |
| 10 |  Pumas UNAM | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 12:13 | 12 |
| 11 | Pachuca | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 13:8 | 11 |
| 12 |  Monterrey | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 13:10 | 10 |
| 13 |  Atletico San Luis | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 11:16 | 9 |
| 14 |  Atlante | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 8:13 | 8 |
| 15 |  Club Necaxa | 9 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 10:16 | 8 |
| 16 |  Tigres de la UANL | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 9:13 | 7 |
| 17 |  Santos Laguna | 8 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 6:13 | 4 |
| 18 |  Juarez | 9 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 6:23 | 3 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.