Club America vs Guadalajara: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Club Americavs
GuadalajaraThe model puts Club America at 39%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: low.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Club America.
- −The head-to-head record favours Guadalajara (4-4-7).
- −Club America are dealing with notable absentees.
Win probabilities
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Guadalajara have won 7 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Guadalajara have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Club America have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- The model gives 53% for both teams to score.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 10 | 12 | 8 | 3 | ||
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Full analysis
Guadalajara have won 7 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 4 of their head-to-head meetings. Club America have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings.
Guadalajara have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. Club America have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
Club America will be without Sciutto S. I., Davila V., Zuniga Jo.. Guadalajara will be without Castillo.
The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0. The model gives 48% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Club America or Guadalajara?
Our model rates Club America as the most likely outcome at 39% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Club America vs Guadalajara?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 4 Club America wins, 4 draws, 7 Guadalajara wins.
Match statistics
Club America
- 3Reyes
- 5Alvarez Ke.
- 7Rodriguez Bra.
- 9Martin
- 12Violante
- 13Cervantes A.
- 23Veiga
- 26Borja C.
- 28Sanchez
- 29Juarez R.
- 30Cota Rod.
- Sciutto S. I. (Missing Player)
- Davila V. (Missing Player)
- Zuniga Jo. (Missing Player)
Guadalajara
- 1Rangel Aguilar
- 3Del Campo
- 6Govea Om.
- 7Barron L.F.
- 9Sepulveda A.
- 14Camberos
- 17Marin
- 23Aguirre
- 25Alvarado Ro.
- 28Gonzalez Fer.
- 30Sandoval
- Castillo (Questionable)
League table
Mexico. Liga MX| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Deportivo Toluca | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 18:6 | 19 |
| 2 | Guadalajara | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 15:6 | 17 |
| 3 | Club America | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 15:6 | 16 |
| 4 |  Cruz Azul | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 16:14 | 15 |
| 5 |  Puebla | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 11:11 | 14 |
| 6 |  Atlas Guadalajara | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 13:15 | 14 |
| 7 |  Queretaro | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 10:7 | 13 |
| 8 |  Leon | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 11:9 | 13 |
| 9 |  Tijuana | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 10:8 | 13 |
| 10 |  Pumas UNAM | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 12:13 | 12 |
| 11 |  Pachuca | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 13:8 | 11 |
| 12 |  Monterrey | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 13:10 | 10 |
| 13 |  Atletico San Luis | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 11:16 | 9 |
| 14 |  Atlante | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 8:13 | 8 |
| 15 |  Club Necaxa | 9 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 10:16 | 8 |
| 16 |  Tigres de la UANL | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 9:13 | 7 |
| 17 |  Santos Laguna | 8 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 6:13 | 4 |
| 18 |  Juarez | 9 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 6:23 | 3 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.