Atlas Guadalajara vs Pumas UNAM: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Atlas Guadalajaravs
Pumas UNAMThe model puts Atlas Guadalajara at 43%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
- +Pumas UNAM are dealing with notable absentees.
Win probabilities
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Atlas Guadalajara have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Pumas UNAM have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Atlas Guadalajara have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Atlas Guadalajara will be without Zaldivar Valverde.
- Pumas UNAM will be without Angulo Mosquera, Calderon De Real, Cordova, Huerta Se., Macias J..
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 8 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 11 | 12 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 9 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 5 | 5 | 3 | |||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Full analysis
The model puts Atlas Guadalajara at 43%. The model puts the draw at 29%. The model puts Pumas UNAM at 27%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward Atlas Guadalajara. Atlas Guadalajara is priced at 2.18. The draw is priced at 3.2. Pumas UNAM is priced at 3.245.
Atlas Guadalajara have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. Pumas UNAM have won 5 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 8 of their head-to-head meetings.
Atlas Guadalajara have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Pumas UNAM have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 51% for both teams to score. The model gives 49% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Atlas Guadalajara or Pumas UNAM?
Our model rates Atlas Guadalajara as the most likely outcome at 43% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Atlas Guadalajara vs Pumas UNAM?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 2 Atlas Guadalajara wins, 8 draws, 5 Pumas UNAM wins.
Match statistics
Atlas Guadalajara
- 3Sanchez Ramos
- 9Monzon F.
- 10Esteves G.
- 11Barros
- 12Vargas C.
- 15Barboza
- 18Montiel
- 19Frias A.
- 23Javier Hernandez
- 28Capasso
- 44Sanchez
- Cruz (Questionable)
- Rocha A. (Questionable)
Pumas UNAM
- 1Navas
- 6da Silva N.A.
- 7Lopez
- 14Herrera
- 18Arteaga
- 21Antuna U.
- 23Juninho Ol.
- 31Morales
- 34Azuaje
- 45Vite
- 77Angulo Mosquera
- Calderon De Real (Questionable)
- Cordova (Missing Player)
- Macias J. (Missing Player)
Match story
How the game unfoldedCautious start, both sides feeling each other out. (0–0)
Pumas UNAM make it count (Azuaje (23')). It's 0–1 at this point.
Half-time score: Atlas Guadalajara 0 – 1 Pumas UNAM.
The game settles after the break without a breakthrough. (0–1)
A tense finish, but the scoreline stays put. (0–1)
League table
Mexico. Liga MX| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Deportivo Toluca | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 18:6 | 19 |
| 2 |  Guadalajara | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 15:6 | 17 |
| 3 |  Club America | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 15:6 | 16 |
| 4 |  Cruz Azul | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 16:14 | 15 |
| 5 |  Puebla | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 11:11 | 14 |
| 6 |  Queretaro | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 10:7 | 13 |
| 7 |  Leon | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 11:9 | 13 |
| 8 |  Tijuana | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 10:8 | 13 |
| 9 | Atlas Guadalajara | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 12:14 | 13 |
| 10 |  Pachuca | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 13:8 | 11 |
| 11 | Pumas UNAM | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 11:12 | 11 |
| 12 |  Monterrey | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 13:10 | 10 |
| 13 |  Club Necaxa | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 9:13 | 8 |
| 14 |  Atlante | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 8:13 | 8 |
| 15 |  Tigres de la UANL | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 9:13 | 7 |
| 16 |  Atletico San Luis | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 8:15 | 6 |
| 17 |  Santos Laguna | 8 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 6:13 | 4 |
| 18 |  Juarez | 9 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 6:23 | 3 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.