Augsburg vs Bayern Munich: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Augsburgvs
Bayern MunichThe model puts Bayern Munich at 77%. The model leans toward Bayern Munich. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −The head-to-head record favours Augsburg (11-1-3).
- +Augsburg are dealing with notable absentees.
- −Bayern Munich are dealing with notable absentees.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Expected goals
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Augsburg have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Bayern Munich have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Augsburg have won 11 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Augsburg will be without Breithaupt, Suso, Banks, Mounie S..
- Bayern Munich will be without Buchmann, Musiala.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3 | 8 | 12 | 11 | 8 | 5 |
| 1 | 2 | 6 | 8 | 8 | 5 | 3 |
| 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Augsburg at 13%. The model puts the draw at 10%. The model puts Bayern Munich at 77%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-2.
The market leans toward Bayern Munich. Augsburg is priced at 12. The draw is priced at 8.9. Bayern Munich is priced at 1.165.
Augsburg have won 11 of the head-to-head meetings. Bayern Munich have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 1 of their head-to-head meetings.
Augsburg have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Bayern Munich have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
Augsburg average 3 goals per game this season. Augsburg average 42% possession. Bayern Munich average 1 goals per game this season. Bayern Munich average 77% possession.
The model gives 47% for both teams to score. The model gives 69% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Augsburg or Bayern Munich?
Our model rates Bayern Munich as the most likely outcome at 77% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Augsburg vs Bayern Munich?
A scoreline around 0-2 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 11 Augsburg wins, 1 draws, 3 Bayern Munich wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
Detailed stats, lineups and the live match story will appear here once match data becomes available.
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.