TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs Hamburger: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
TSG 1899 Hoffenheimvs
HamburgerThe model puts TSG 1899 Hoffenheim at 66%. The model leans toward TSG 1899 Hoffenheim. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −The head-to-head record favours Hamburger (5-2-8).
- −TSG 1899 Hoffenheim are dealing with notable absentees.
- +Hamburger are dealing with notable absentees.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Expected goals
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- TSG 1899 Hoffenheim have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Hamburger have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- TSG 1899 Hoffenheim have won 5 of the head-to-head meetings.
- TSG 1899 Hoffenheim will be without Bernardo F. S, Hajdari.
- Hamburger will be without Gronbaek, Rossing-Lelesiit, Vuskovic, Daka, El Ouahdi.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11 | 6 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 19 | 10 | 2 | |||
| 2 | 16 | 8 | 2 | |||
| 3 | 9 | 5 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 4 | 2 | ||||
| 5 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts TSG 1899 Hoffenheim at 66%. The model puts the draw at 18%. The model puts Hamburger at 16%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward TSG 1899 Hoffenheim. TSG 1899 Hoffenheim is priced at 1.395. The draw is priced at 5. Hamburger is priced at 7.2.
TSG 1899 Hoffenheim have won 5 of the head-to-head meetings. Hamburger have won 8 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 2 of their head-to-head meetings.
TSG 1899 Hoffenheim have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. Hamburger have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
TSG 1899 Hoffenheim average 2 goals per game this season. TSG 1899 Hoffenheim average 51% possession. Hamburger average 0 goals per game this season. Hamburger average 40% possession.
The model gives 33% for both teams to score. The model gives 38% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, TSG 1899 Hoffenheim or Hamburger?
Our model rates TSG 1899 Hoffenheim as the most likely outcome at 66% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs Hamburger?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 5 TSG 1899 Hoffenheim wins, 2 draws, 8 Hamburger wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward under 2.5 goals.
Detailed stats, lineups and the live match story will appear here once match data becomes available.
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.