Paderborn 07 vs VfB Stuttgart: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Paderborn 07vs
VfB StuttgartThe model puts VfB Stuttgart at 58%. The model leans toward VfB Stuttgart. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +The head-to-head record favours VfB Stuttgart (0-1-4).
- +Paderborn 07 are dealing with notable absentees.
- −VfB Stuttgart are dealing with notable absentees.
Win probabilities
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Paderborn 07 have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- VfB Stuttgart have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Paderborn 07 will be without Awortwie-Grant, Lasse Eickel, Hoffmeier, Gayret, Klaas S..
- VfB Stuttgart will be without Diehl J., Al Dakhil, Zagadou, Nartey N., Thomas.
- VfB Stuttgart is priced at 1.632.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 11 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 |
| 1 | 6 | 11 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 |
| 2 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 2 | 2 | ||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Full analysis
The model puts Paderborn 07 at 22%. The model puts the draw at 20%. The model puts VfB Stuttgart at 58%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1.
The market leans toward VfB Stuttgart. Paderborn 07 is priced at 4.5. The draw is priced at 4.54. VfB Stuttgart is priced at 1.632.
VfB Stuttgart have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 1 of their head-to-head meetings.
Paderborn 07 have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Paderborn 07 are on 2 wins in a row. VfB Stuttgart have 3 wins in their last 5 matches. VfB Stuttgart are on 2 wins in a row.
Paderborn 07 average 2 goals per game this season. Paderborn 07 average 46% possession. VfB Stuttgart average 1 goals per game this season. VfB Stuttgart average 49% possession.
The model gives 53% for both teams to score. The model gives 54% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Paderborn 07 or VfB Stuttgart?
Our model rates VfB Stuttgart as the most likely outcome at 58% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Paderborn 07 vs VfB Stuttgart?
A scoreline around 0-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 5 meetings: 0 Paderborn 07 wins, 1 draws, 4 VfB Stuttgart wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
Detailed stats, lineups and the live match story will appear here once match data becomes available.
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.