Freiburg vs Schalke 04: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Freiburgvs
Schalke 04The model puts Freiburg at 57%. The model leans toward Freiburg. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +The head-to-head record favours Freiburg (8-4-3).
- −Freiburg are dealing with notable absentees.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Freiburg have 4 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Schalke 04 have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Freiburg have won 8 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Freiburg will be without Ogbus, Yilmaz.
- Schalke 04 will be without Ljubicic D..
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
| 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | |||
| 2 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 3 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 1 | |
| 4 | 3 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 1 | |
| 5 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Freiburg at 57%. The model puts the draw at 23%. The model puts Schalke 04 at 19%. The model's most likely scoreline is 4-1.
The market leans toward Freiburg. Freiburg is priced at 1.675. The draw is priced at 3.9. Schalke 04 is priced at 4.98.
Freiburg have won 8 of the head-to-head meetings. Schalke 04 have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 4 of their head-to-head meetings.
Freiburg have 4 wins in their last 5 matches. Schalke 04 have 3 wins in their last 5 matches. Schalke 04 are on 2 wins in a row.
Freiburg average 5 goals per game this season. Freiburg average 57% possession. Schalke 04 average 2 goals per game this season. Schalke 04 average 44% possession.
The model gives 81% for both teams to score. The model gives 94% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Freiburg or Schalke 04?
Our model rates Freiburg as the most likely outcome at 57% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Freiburg vs Schalke 04?
A scoreline around 4-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 8 Freiburg wins, 4 draws, 3 Schalke 04 wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
Odds movement
Match statistics
Freiburg
- 1Backhaus
- 3Lienhart Ph.
- 7Scherhant
- 8Eggestein
- 14Suzuki
- 16Engelhardt
- 19Beste
- 28Ginter
- 29Treu
- 31Matanovic
- 33Makengo
- Ogbus (Missing Player)
- Yilmaz (Missing Player)
Schalke 04
- 1Karius
- 4Kurucay H.
- 5Bekker
- 8Gosens
- 9Sylla M.
- 13Tanaka
- 19Karaman K.
- 23El-Faouzi
- 24Aouchiche
- 25Katic
- 29Dina E.
- Ljubicic D. (Missing Player)
League table
Germany. Bundesliga| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Borussia Dortmund | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 11:4 | 13 |
| 2 |  Bayern Munich | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 16:4 | 11 |
| 3 | Freiburg | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 12:3 | 10 |
| 4 |  Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 14:8 | 10 |
| 5 |  RasenBallsport Leipzig | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 15:5 | 9 |
| 6 |  Augsburg | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 13:8 | 8 |
| 7 |  Werder Bremen | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 10:10 | 8 |
| 8 |  1. FSV Mainz 05 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 13:10 | 7 |
| 9 |  Elversberg | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8:8 | 7 |
| 10 |  VfB Stuttgart | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 8:9 | 6 |
| 11 |  Hamburger | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 5:15 | 6 |
| 12 | Schalke 04 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3:4 | 5 |
| 13 |  Eintracht Frankfurt | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 9:16 | 5 |
| 14 |  1. Koln | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 6:9 | 4 |
| 15 |  Paderborn 07 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 3:7 | 4 |
| 16 |  Union Berlin | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 5:17 | 4 |
| 17 |  TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 5 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 9:13 | 3 |
| 18 |  Borussia Monchengladbach | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 6:16 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.