Union Berlin vs Elversberg: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Union Berlinvs
ElversbergThe model puts Union Berlin at 40%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: low.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −Union Berlin are dealing with notable absentees.
- +Elversberg are dealing with notable absentees.
Win probabilities
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Union Berlin will be without Ilic, Markgraf, Burke O., Nsoki S., Friedrich M..
- Elversberg will be without Schnellbacher, Зайферт, Onyeka F..
- Union Berlin is priced at 2.425.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 5 | 9 | 7 | 4 | 2 | |
| 2 | 5 | 9 | 7 | 4 | 2 | |
| 3 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 1 | |
| 4 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Full analysis
The model puts Union Berlin at 40%. The model puts the draw at 26%. The model puts Elversberg at 34%. The model's most likely scoreline is 2-1.
The market frames this as a close contest. Union Berlin is priced at 2.425. The draw is priced at 3.5. Elversberg is priced at 2.815.
Union Berlin average 2 goals per game this season. Union Berlin average 58% possession. Elversberg average 2 goals per game this season. Elversberg average 54% possession.
The model gives 70% for both teams to score. The model gives 71% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Union Berlin or Elversberg?
Our model rates Union Berlin as the most likely outcome at 40% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Union Berlin vs Elversberg?
A scoreline around 2-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
Detailed stats, lineups and the live match story will appear here once match data becomes available.
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.