Sport Club Internacional vs Corinthians Paulista: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Sport Club Internacionalvs
Corinthians PaulistaThe model puts Sport Club Internacional at 42%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Sport Club Internacional.
- +Sport Club Internacional creates more chances (17 vs 11 shots per game).
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Sport Club Internacional have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Corinthians Paulista have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Sport Club Internacional have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Sport Club Internacional is priced at 2.475.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11 | 10 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 15 | 13 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 10 | 8 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 4 | 4 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Sport Club Internacional at 42%. The model puts the draw at 32%. The model puts Corinthians Paulista at 26%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market frames this as a close contest. Sport Club Internacional is priced at 2.475. The draw is priced at 2.88. Corinthians Paulista is priced at 3.32.
Sport Club Internacional have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings. Corinthians Paulista have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 8 of their head-to-head meetings.
Sport Club Internacional have 3 wins in their last 5 matches. Sport Club Internacional are on 2 wins in a row. Corinthians Paulista have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
Sport Club Internacional average 1 goals per game this season. Sport Club Internacional average 48% possession. Corinthians Paulista average 1 goals per game this season. Corinthians Paulista average 52% possession.
The model gives 42% for both teams to score. The model gives 37% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Sport Club Internacional or Corinthians Paulista?
Our model rates Sport Club Internacional as the most likely outcome at 42% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Sport Club Internacional vs Corinthians Paulista?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 3 Sport Club Internacional wins, 8 draws, 4 Corinthians Paulista wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward under 2.5 goals.
Odds movement
League table
Brazil. Campeonato Brasileiro. Serie A| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Flamengo | 28 | 18 | 4 | 6 | 55:23 | 60 |
| 2 |  Sociedade Esportiva Palmeiras | 28 | 16 | 3 | 9 | 47:21 | 57 |
| 3 |  Clube Atletico Paranaense | 28 | 14 | 7 | 7 | 43:32 | 49 |
| 4 |  Fluminense | 28 | 13 | 6 | 9 | 44:36 | 48 |
| 5 |  Bahia | 28 | 12 | 6 | 10 | 43:35 | 46 |
| 6 |  Cruzeiro Esporte Clube | 28 | 13 | 9 | 6 | 42:40 | 45 |
| 7 |  Clube Atletico Mineiro | 28 | 12 | 9 | 7 | 37:32 | 43 |
| 8 |  Santos | 28 | 11 | 9 | 8 | 43:41 | 41 |
| 9 |  Coritiba | 28 | 10 | 10 | 8 | 37:43 | 38 |
| 10 |  Sao Paulo | 28 | 10 | 12 | 6 | 33:32 | 36 |
| 11 |  Red Bull Bragantino | 28 | 10 | 12 | 6 | 33:32 | 36 |
| 12 |  Botafogo de Futebol e Regatas | 28 | 9 | 11 | 8 | 41:45 | 35 |
| 13 |  EC Vitoria Salvador | 28 | 9 | 13 | 6 | 28:42 | 33 |
| 14 | Corinthians Paulista | 28 | 8 | 12 | 8 | 29:32 | 32 |
| 15 |  Mirassol | 28 | 8 | 12 | 8 | 33:42 | 32 |
| 16 |  CR Vasco da Gama | 27 | 8 | 12 | 7 | 34:41 | 31 |
| 17 |  Gremio Porto Alegrense | 28 | 7 | 13 | 8 | 30:38 | 29 |
| 18 | Sport Club Internacional | 28 | 6 | 12 | 10 | 30:36 | 28 |
| 19 |  Clube do Remo | 28 | 5 | 15 | 8 | 32:47 | 23 |
| 20 |  Chapecoense | 27 | 3 | 15 | 9 | 29:53 | 18 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.