Atletico San Luis vs Club Necaxa: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Atletico San Luisvs
Club NecaxaThe model puts Atletico San Luis at 46%. The model leans toward Atletico San Luis. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Atletico San Luis.
- +The head-to-head record favours Atletico San Luis (9-3-3).
- −Atletico San Luis are dealing with notable absentees.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Atletico San Luis have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Club Necaxa have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Atletico San Luis have won 9 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Atletico San Luis will be without Lucas Esteves, Joao Pedro, Medina Jes., Alves de Barros R., Sanchez.
- Club Necaxa will be without Jimenez.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 8 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 12 | 12 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 9 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 5 | 5 | 3 | |||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Atletico San Luis at 46%. The model puts the draw at 25%. The model puts Club Necaxa at 30%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market frames this as a close contest. Atletico San Luis is priced at 2.21. The draw is priced at 3.42. Club Necaxa is priced at 2.985.
Atletico San Luis have won 9 of the head-to-head meetings. Club Necaxa have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 3 of their head-to-head meetings.
Atletico San Luis have 3 wins in their last 5 matches. Club Necaxa have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 51% for both teams to score. The model gives 49% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Atletico San Luis or Club Necaxa?
Our model rates Atletico San Luis as the most likely outcome at 46% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Atletico San Luis vs Club Necaxa?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 9 Atletico San Luis wins, 3 draws, 3 Club Necaxa wins.
Odds movement
Match statistics
Atletico San Luis
- 2Torres
- 10Lamonge
- 11Rodriguez Da
- 17Duarte
- 18Cruz Al.
- 21Macias Mora O.U.
- 22Llorente
- 25Lajud G.
- 30Galindo Cruz
- 31Aguila
- 99Mora
- Lucas Esteves (Questionable)
- Joao Pedro (Missing Player)
- Medina Jes. (Questionable)
- Alves de Barros R. (Questionable)
- Sanchez (Questionable)
Club Necaxa
- 1Andrade
- 3Olivera A.
- 4Pena Al.
- 5Naves
- 7Rosero
- 8Faravelli
- 9Carranza J.
- 10Ruiz
- 16Pedraza
- 33Martinez Ruiz R.
- 90Valencia
- Jimenez (Missing Player)
Match story
How the game unfoldedClub Necaxa make it count (Olivera A. (10')). It's 0–1 at this point.
Atletico San Luis make it count (Mora (27')). It's 1–1 at this point.
Half-time score: Atletico San Luis 1 – 1 Club Necaxa.
The game settles after the break without a breakthrough. (1–1)
A tense finish, but the scoreline stays put. (1–1)
League table
Mexico. Liga MX| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Deportivo Toluca | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 18:6 | 19 |
| 2 |  Guadalajara | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 15:6 | 17 |
| 3 |  Club America | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 15:6 | 16 |
| 4 |  Cruz Azul | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 16:14 | 15 |
| 5 |  Puebla | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 11:11 | 14 |
| 6 |  Queretaro | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 10:7 | 13 |
| 7 |  Leon | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 11:9 | 13 |
| 8 |  Tijuana | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 10:8 | 13 |
| 9 |  Atlas Guadalajara | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 12:14 | 13 |
| 10 |  Pachuca | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 13:8 | 11 |
| 11 |  Pumas UNAM | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 11:12 | 11 |
| 12 |  Monterrey | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 13:10 | 10 |
| 13 | Club Necaxa | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 9:13 | 8 |
| 14 |  Atlante | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 8:13 | 8 |
| 15 |  Tigres de la UANL | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 9:13 | 7 |
| 16 | Atletico San Luis | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 8:15 | 6 |
| 17 |  Santos Laguna | 8 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 6:13 | 4 |
| 18 |  Juarez | 9 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 6:23 | 3 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.