Mexico. Liga MX

Deportivo Toluca vs Santos Laguna: Prediction, Odds & Analysis

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Deportivo Tolucavs

Santos Laguna

Our predictionDeportivo Toluca to win

Model score: High · 92/100

Score hint: 2-0

The model puts Deportivo Toluca at 75%. The model leans toward Deportivo Toluca. Confidence: high.

Why this prediction

+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.

+Recent form favours Deportivo Toluca.
+The head-to-head record favours Deportivo Toluca (9-2-4).
−Deportivo Toluca are dealing with notable absentees.
+Santos Laguna are dealing with notable absentees.

Win probabilities

1 · Deportivo Toluca75%

Draw14%

2 · Santos Laguna10%

1 · Deportivo TolucaDraw2 · Santos Laguna

Full team comparison →

Model vs market

Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.

BTTSNo2.11+24.8%

1X2Deportivo Toluca1.25+1.2%

1X2Santos Laguna9.40+0.4%

1X2Draw5.75-1.6%

BTTSYes1.65-24.8%

Our model BookmakerPositive edge = model disagreement, not a value bet. Not betting advice.

Recent form

Deportivo TolucaWWWWW

Santos LagunaWLDLL

Team strength rating

Deportivo Toluca

Santos Laguna

Most likely scorelines

2-017.3%

1-015.4%

3-013.0%

2-17.5%

4-07.3%

0-06.8%

Expected goals

2.25Deportivo Toluca

0.43Santos Laguna

Over 2.5 goals50%

Both teams to score31%

Match DNA

Deportivo Toluca Santos Laguna

Key points

Deportivo Toluca have 5 wins in their last 5 matches.
Santos Laguna have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
Deportivo Toluca have won 9 of the head-to-head meetings.
Deportivo Toluca will be without López É. I., Ruiz M., Simon S., Gonzalez H., Gutierrez.
Santos Laguna will be without Di Yorio, Amione, Lozano A..

Betting angles

MarketPickOddsAssessment

1X2Deportivo Toluca win1.25Fair (+1.2%)

Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.

Scoreline probability matrix

H \ A	0	1	2
0	7	3
1	15	7	1
2	17	7	2
3	13	6	1
4	7	3
5	3	1

Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.

Full analysis

The model puts Deportivo Toluca at 75%. The model puts the draw at 14%. The model puts Santos Laguna at 10%. The model's most likely scoreline is 2-0.

The market leans toward Deportivo Toluca. Deportivo Toluca is priced at 1.25. The draw is priced at 5.75. Santos Laguna is priced at 9.4.

Deportivo Toluca have won 9 of the head-to-head meetings. Santos Laguna have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 2 of their head-to-head meetings.

Deportivo Toluca have 5 wins in their last 5 matches. Deportivo Toluca are on 5 wins in a row. Santos Laguna have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.

The model gives 31% for both teams to score. The model gives 50% for over 2.5 goals.

This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.

Prediction Track Record →Methodology →Model card →

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite, Deportivo Toluca or Santos Laguna?

Our model rates Deportivo Toluca as the most likely outcome at 75% probability.

What's a likely scoreline for Deportivo Toluca vs Santos Laguna?

A scoreline around 2-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.

What's the head-to-head record?

In the last 15 meetings: 9 Deportivo Toluca wins, 2 draws, 4 Santos Laguna wins.

See odds at bookmakers

Match statistics

Player of the matchBullaudeSantos Laguna8.9