Queretaro vs Leon: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Queretarovs
LeonThe model puts Queretaro at 39%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: low.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −The head-to-head record favours Leon (2-3-10).
- +Leon are dealing with notable absentees.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Queretaro have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Leon have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Queretaro have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Queretaro will be without Unjanque.
- Leon will be without Estrada, Valadez.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 10 | 12 | 7 | 3 | ||
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Queretaro at 39%. The model puts the draw at 25%. The model puts Leon at 36%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market frames this as a close contest. Queretaro is priced at 2.36. The draw is priced at 3.42. Leon is priced at 2.7.
Queretaro have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. Leon have won 10 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 3 of their head-to-head meetings.
Queretaro have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Queretaro are on 2 wins in a row. Leon have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 53% for both teams to score. The model gives 48% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Queretaro or Leon?
Our model rates Queretaro as the most likely outcome at 39% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Queretaro vs Leon?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 2 Queretaro wins, 3 draws, 10 Leon wins.
Match statistics
Queretaro
- 2Abascia
- 4Garcia
- 5Homenchenko
- 9Avila
- 12Mileo Vidotti
- 13Reyes Di.
- 16Gimenez
- 20Alcala
- 24Duarte
- 25Allison Revuelta
- 27Parra
- Unjanque (Questionable)
Leon
- 3Guevara
- 5Vegas S.
- 6Beltran Cruz
- 7Moreno
- 13Arcila
- 14Romana J.
- 16Cortizo
- 20Echeverria R.
- 23Garcia
- 27Cambindo
- 29Rebollar J.
- Estrada (Questionable)
- Valadez (Missing Player)
League table
Mexico. Liga MX| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Deportivo Toluca | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 18:6 | 19 |
| 2 |  Guadalajara | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 15:6 | 17 |
| 3 |  Club America | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 15:6 | 16 |
| 4 |  Cruz Azul | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 16:14 | 15 |
| 5 |  Puebla | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 11:11 | 14 |
| 6 |  Atlas Guadalajara | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 13:15 | 14 |
| 7 | Queretaro | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 10:7 | 13 |
| 8 | Leon | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 11:9 | 13 |
| 9 |  Tijuana | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 10:8 | 13 |
| 10 |  Pumas UNAM | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 12:13 | 12 |
| 11 |  Pachuca | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 13:8 | 11 |
| 12 |  Monterrey | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 13:10 | 10 |
| 13 |  Atletico San Luis | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 11:16 | 9 |
| 14 |  Atlante | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 8:13 | 8 |
| 15 |  Club Necaxa | 9 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 10:16 | 8 |
| 16 |  Tigres de la UANL | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 9:13 | 7 |
| 17 |  Santos Laguna | 8 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 6:13 | 4 |
| 18 |  Juarez | 9 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 6:23 | 3 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.