Paris Saint-Germain vs Le Mans: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Paris Saint-Germainvs
Le MansThe model puts Paris Saint-Germain at 83%. The model leans toward Paris Saint-Germain. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −Recent form favours Le Mans.
- −The head-to-head record favours Le Mans (2-3-9).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Paris Saint-Germain have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Le Mans have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Paris Saint-Germain have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Paris Saint-Germain is priced at 1.06.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 2 | ||||
| 1 | 13 | 5 | ||||
| 2 | 17 | 7 | 1 | |||
| 3 | 15 | 6 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 10 | 4 | ||||
| 5 | 5 | 2 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Paris Saint-Germain at 83%. The model puts the draw at 6%. The model puts Le Mans at 11%. The model's most likely scoreline is 2-0.
The market leans toward Paris Saint-Germain. Paris Saint-Germain is priced at 1.06. The draw is priced at 13.5. Le Mans is priced at 27.
Paris Saint-Germain have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. Le Mans have won 9 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 3 of their head-to-head meetings.
Paris Saint-Germain have 0 wins in their last 5 matches. Le Mans have 3 wins in their last 5 matches. Le Mans are on 2 wins in a row.
Paris Saint-Germain average 1 goals per game this season. Paris Saint-Germain average 68% possession. Le Mans average 2 goals per game this season. Le Mans average 39% possession.
The model gives 29% for both teams to score. The model gives 58% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Paris Saint-Germain or Le Mans?
Our model rates Paris Saint-Germain as the most likely outcome at 83% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Paris Saint-Germain vs Le Mans?
A scoreline around 2-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 14 meetings: 2 Paris Saint-Germain wins, 3 draws, 9 Le Mans wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
League table
France. Ligue 1| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  AS Monaco | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 8:3 | 13 |
| 2 |  Lyon | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 10:2 | 11 |
| 3 |  Paris | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 8:3 | 11 |
| 4 |  Lille OSC | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 8:4 | 10 |
| 5 |  Stade Rennais | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 8:9 | 10 |
| 6 | Paris Saint-Germain | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 8:7 | 8 |
| 7 |  Angers SCO | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 6:5 | 7 |
| 8 |  Strasbourg | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 10:10 | 7 |
| 9 | Le Mans | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 9:9 | 6 |
| 10 |  Auxerre | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 7:12 | 6 |
| 11 |  Stade Brestois 29 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 7:8 | 5 |
| 12 |  Lorient | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5:6 | 5 |
| 13 |  Toulouse | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 7:9 | 5 |
| 14 |  Nice | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3:6 | 5 |
| 15 |  RC Lens | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 9:9 | 4 |
| 16 |  Troyes AC | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 4:11 | 4 |
| 17 |  Olympique de Marseille | 5 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 7:8 | 3 |
| 18 |  Le Havre | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 4:7 | 2 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.