Belgium vs Turkey: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Belgiumvs
TurkeyThe model puts Belgium at 64%. The model leans toward Belgium. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Belgium.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Belgium have 4 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Turkey have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Belgium have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Belgium is priced at 1.496.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 5 | 2 | |||
| 1 | 14 | 10 | 3 | |||
| 2 | 14 | 9 | 3 | |||
| 3 | 9 | 6 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 4 | 3 | ||||
| 5 | 2 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Belgium at 64%. The model puts the draw at 20%. The model puts Turkey at 16%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward Belgium. Belgium is priced at 1.496. The draw is priced at 4.8. Turkey is priced at 5.65.
Belgium have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings. Turkey have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 3 of their head-to-head meetings.
Belgium have 4 wins in their last 5 matches. Turkey have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 42% for both teams to score. The model gives 48% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Belgium or Turkey?
Our model rates Belgium as the most likely outcome at 64% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Belgium vs Turkey?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 9 meetings: 3 Belgium wins, 3 draws, 3 Turkey wins.
League table
UEFA Nations League - League A| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  France | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2:0 | 6 |
| 2 | Belgium | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2:1 | 3 |
| 3 |  Italy | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4:3 | 3 |
| 4 | Turkey | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1:5 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.