AFC Champions League 2

Kitchee vs Gangwon: Prediction, Odds & Analysis

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Kitcheevs

Gangwon

Our predictionKitchee to win

Model score: Low · 33/100

Score hint: 1-0

The model puts Kitchee at 41%. Data on this fixture is limited, so the prediction carries extra uncertainty. Confidence: low.

Win probabilities

1 · Kitchee41%

Draw28%

2 · Gangwon30%

1 · KitcheeDraw2 · Gangwon

Full team comparison →

Team strength rating

Kitchee

Gangwon

Most likely scorelines

1-112.2%

1-011.1%

2-19.2%

2-08.4%

0-18.1%

0-07.3%

Expected goals

1.51Kitchee

1.10Gangwon

Over 2.5 goals49%

Both teams to score52%

Match DNA

Kitchee Gangwon

Key points

The model puts Kitchee at 41%.
The model puts Gangwon at 30%.
The model puts the draw at 28%.
The market frames this as a close contest.
Data on this fixture is limited, so the prediction carries extra uncertainty.

Betting angles

MarketPickOddsAssessment

1X2Kitchee win2.29Fair (+0.5%)

Double chanceKitchee or draw—Info

Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.

Scoreline probability matrix

H \ A	0	1	2	3
0	7	8	4	2
1	11	12	7	2
2	8	9	5	2
3	4	5	3
4	2	2
5

Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.

Model vs market

Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.

1X2Kitchee2.29+0.5%

1X2Draw3.25-0.3%

1X2Gangwon3.03-0.3%

Our model BookmakerPositive edge = model disagreement, not a value bet. Not betting advice.

Full analysis

The model puts Kitchee at 41%. The model puts Gangwon at 30%. The model puts the draw at 28%.

Kitchee is priced at 2.285. Gangwon is priced at 3.03. The draw is priced at 3.245. The market frames this as a close contest.

The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0. The model gives 52% for both teams to score. The model gives 49% for over 2.5 goals.

Data on this fixture is limited, so the prediction carries extra uncertainty.

This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.

Prediction Track Record →Methodology →Model card →