Cuiaba vs Clube Nautico Capibaribe: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Cuiabavs
Clube Nautico CapibaribeThe model puts Cuiaba at 47%. The model leans toward Cuiaba. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +The head-to-head record favours Cuiaba (4-0-1).
- −Cuiaba are dealing with notable absentees.
- +Clube Nautico Capibaribe are dealing with notable absentees.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Cuiaba have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Clube Nautico Capibaribe have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Cuiaba have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Cuiaba will be without Carne M., Pepe.
- Clube Nautico Capibaribe will be without Leo Indio, Ribeiro M., Felipe Lu., Luiz de Souza, Samuel.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 12 | 12 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 5 | 5 | 3 | |||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Cuiaba at 47%. The model puts the draw at 28%. The model puts Clube Nautico Capibaribe at 26%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward Cuiaba. Cuiaba is priced at 2.07. The draw is priced at 3.14. Clube Nautico Capibaribe is priced at 3.605.
Cuiaba have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings. Clube Nautico Capibaribe have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.
Cuiaba have 0 wins in their last 5 matches. Clube Nautico Capibaribe have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 50% for both teams to score. The model gives 49% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Cuiaba or Clube Nautico Capibaribe?
Our model rates Cuiaba as the most likely outcome at 47% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Cuiaba vs Clube Nautico Capibaribe?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 5 meetings: 4 Cuiaba wins, 0 draws, 1 Clube Nautico Capibaribe wins.
Odds movement
Match statistics
Cuiaba
- 1Carlos J.
- 2Inocencio
- 4Mendes
- 13Basso J.O.
- 20Arcanjo D. M.
- 30Goncalves
- 36Lorenco
- 41Cristtyan
- 77Jean Dias
- 90Gomes Netto
- 91Luisao
- Carne M. (Missing Player)
- Pepe (Missing Player)
Clube Nautico Capibaribe
- 1Muriel
- 3Betao
- 5dos Santos Aur.
- 7Vinicius Sa.
- 8da Silva Costa Ferreira W.
- 10Jean Carlos
- 19Kauan Maranhao
- 23Igor Fernandes
- 24Borasi
- 34Wanderson
- 93Lopes Re.
- Leo Indio (Missing Player)
- Ribeiro M. (Missing Player)
- Felipe Lu. (Missing Player)
- Luiz de Souza (Missing Player)
- Samuel (Missing Player)
League table
Brazil. Campeonato Brasileiro. Serie B| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Vila Nova | 29 | 15 | 8 | 6 | 41:31 | 51 |
| 2 |  Fortaleza EC | 29 | 14 | 6 | 9 | 33:24 | 51 |
| 3 |  Novorizontino | 29 | 14 | 7 | 8 | 49:27 | 50 |
| 4 |  Esporte Clube Juventude | 29 | 14 | 7 | 8 | 31:19 | 50 |
| 5 |  Criciuma | 28 | 13 | 7 | 8 | 28:25 | 47 |
| 6 |  Atletico Clube Goianiense | 29 | 12 | 7 | 10 | 36:27 | 46 |
| 7 |  CRB Maceio | 29 | 13 | 10 | 6 | 42:41 | 45 |
| 8 |  Operario Ferroviario | 28 | 12 | 8 | 8 | 39:36 | 44 |
| 9 |  Sport Club do Recife | 29 | 11 | 7 | 11 | 39:29 | 44 |
| 10 |  Goias Esporte Clube | 29 | 12 | 11 | 6 | 30:35 | 42 |
| 11 |  Sao Bernardo | 29 | 11 | 10 | 8 | 40:31 | 41 |
| 12 |  Athletic Club MG | 29 | 10 | 8 | 11 | 34:31 | 41 |
| 13 | Cuiaba | 28 | 9 | 6 | 13 | 27:22 | 40 |
| 14 | Clube Nautico Capibaribe | 28 | 10 | 10 | 8 | 35:33 | 38 |
| 15 |  Ceara | 29 | 9 | 12 | 8 | 31:37 | 35 |
| 16 |  Botafogo Ribeirao Preto | 29 | 8 | 13 | 8 | 32:36 | 32 |
| 17 |  Avai | 29 | 8 | 15 | 6 | 30:38 | 30 |
| 18 |  Londrina | 29 | 7 | 15 | 7 | 39:41 | 28 |
| 19 |  America Minas Gerais | 29 | 4 | 20 | 5 | 21:49 | 17 |
| 20 |  Associacao Atletica Ponte Preta | 29 | 3 | 22 | 4 | 17:62 | 13 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.