Troyes AC vs Olympique de Marseille: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Troyes ACvs
Olympique de MarseilleThe model puts Olympique de Marseille at 46%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: low.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −The head-to-head record favours Troyes AC (10-4-1).
- +Troyes AC are dealing with notable absentees.
- −Olympique de Marseille are dealing with notable absentees.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Troyes AC have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Olympique de Marseille have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Troyes AC have won 10 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Troyes AC will be without Ouzenadji, Titi, Ismael B., Yacouba Kone.
- Olympique de Marseille will be without Weah, Kondogbia G., Cornelius, Hojbjerg.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 25 | 19 | 7 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 16 | 12 | 5 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 5 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 3 | 1 | |||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Troyes AC at 31%. The model puts the draw at 24%. The model puts Olympique de Marseille at 46%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1.
The market leans toward Olympique de Marseille. Troyes AC is priced at 3.52. The draw is priced at 3.72. Olympique de Marseille is priced at 2.
Troyes AC have won 10 of the head-to-head meetings. Olympique de Marseille have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 4 of their head-to-head meetings.
Troyes AC have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Olympique de Marseille have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
Troyes AC average 1 goals per game this season. Troyes AC average 43% possession. Olympique de Marseille average 0 goals per game this season. Olympique de Marseille average 58% possession.
The model gives 25% for both teams to score. The model gives 16% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Troyes AC or Olympique de Marseille?
Our model rates Olympique de Marseille as the most likely outcome at 46% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Troyes AC vs Olympique de Marseille?
A scoreline around 0-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 10 Troyes AC wins, 4 draws, 1 Olympique de Marseille wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward under 2.5 goals.
Odds movement
Match statistics
Troyes AC
- 2Мароннье
- 4Junior Diaz
- 6Monfray
- 8Diop
- 9Le Douaron
- 11Gomis
- 17Mille
- 22Picard
- 29Karim
- 31Donkor
- 33Beach
- Ouzenadji (Missing Player)
- Titi (Missing Player)
- Ismael B. (Missing Player)
- Yacouba Kone (Missing Player)
Olympique de Marseille
- 1De Lange J.
- 4Egan-Riley
- 6Nadi
- 7Gomes An.
- 8Abdelli H.
- 11Maupay
- 14Paixao I.
- 21Aguerd
- 25Garcia Ul.
- 33Emerson P.
- 77Harit
- Weah (Missing Player)
- Kondogbia G. (Questionable)
- Cornelius (Missing Player)
- Hojbjerg (Missing Player)
League table
France. Ligue 1| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  AS Monaco | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 10:5 | 14 |
| 2 |  Lille OSC | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 9:4 | 13 |
| 3 |  Lyon | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 11:4 | 11 |
| 4 |  Paris | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 8:4 | 11 |
| 5 |  Paris Saint-Germain | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 11:8 | 11 |
| 6 |  Stade Rennais | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 8:9 | 10 |
| 7 |  Stade Brestois 29 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 12:9 | 8 |
| 8 |  Lorient | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 6:6 | 8 |
| 9 |  RC Lens | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 11:10 | 7 |
| 10 |  Strasbourg | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 10:10 | 7 |
| 11 |  Angers SCO | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 7:10 | 7 |
| 12 |  Le Mans | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 10:12 | 6 |
| 13 |  Toulouse | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 9:11 | 6 |
| 14 |  Auxerre | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 7:12 | 6 |
| 15 |  Nice | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3:6 | 5 |
| 16 | Troyes AC | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 4:11 | 4 |
| 17 | Olympique de Marseille | 5 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 7:8 | 3 |
| 18 |  Le Havre | 6 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 4:8 | 2 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.