Como vs Roma: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Comovs
RomaThe model puts Como at 37%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: low.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Expected goals
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Como have 4 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Roma have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Como have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Como is priced at 2.58.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 2 | |
| 2 | 3 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 1 |
| 3 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 2 | |
| 4 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |
| 5 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Como at 37%. The model puts the draw at 27%. The model puts Roma at 36%. The model's most likely scoreline is 2-1.
The market frames this as a close contest. Como is priced at 2.58. The draw is priced at 3.56. Roma is priced at 2.59.
Como have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings. Roma have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings.
Como have 4 wins in their last 5 matches. Roma have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
Como average 2 goals per game this season. Como average 64% possession. Roma average 3 goals per game this season. Roma average 56% possession.
The model gives 79% for both teams to score. The model gives 82% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Como or Roma?
Our model rates Como as the most likely outcome at 37% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Como vs Roma?
A scoreline around 2-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 3 Como wins, 0 draws, 3 Roma wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
League table
Italy. Serie A| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Roma | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 14:3 | 13 |
| 2 |  Internazionale Milano | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 15:8 | 13 |
| 3 |  Lazio | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 8:3 | 13 |
| 4 |  Cagliari Calcio | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 5:2 | 12 |
| 5 |  Milan | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 10:4 | 11 |
| 6 |  Frosinone Calcio | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 9:4 | 10 |
| 7 |  Juventus | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 8:4 | 10 |
| 8 | Como | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 9:6 | 10 |
| 9 |  Napoli | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 7:6 | 7 |
| 10 |  Sassuolo Calcio | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 9:9 | 7 |
| 11 |  Atalanta | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 5:7 | 6 |
| 12 |  Lecce | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 5:10 | 6 |
| 13 |  Udinese Calcio | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 8:11 | 4 |
| 14 |  Torino | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 5:8 | 4 |
| 15 |  Parma | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 4:7 | 4 |
| 16 |  Monza 1912 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 8:12 | 4 |
| 17 |  Fiorentina | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 6:12 | 4 |
| 18 |  Bologna 1909 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 3:6 | 2 |
| 19 |  Genoa | 5 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 3:10 | 1 |
| 20 |  Unione Venezia | 5 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 4:13 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.