Napoli vs Frosinone Calcio: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Napolivs
Frosinone CalcioThe model puts Napoli at 60%. The model leans toward Napoli. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −Recent form favours Frosinone Calcio.
- +The head-to-head record favours Napoli (8-3-1).
- −Napoli are dealing with notable absentees.
- +Frosinone Calcio are dealing with notable absentees.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Expected goals
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Napoli have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Frosinone Calcio have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Napoli have won 8 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Napoli will be without Santos, Favasuli, Giovanni, Zambo Anguissa, Buongiorno, Vergara, Olivera.
- Frosinone Calcio will be without Birligea, Grillitsch.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 4 | 2 | |||
| 1 | 11 | 9 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 12 | 10 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 8 | 7 | 3 | |||
| 4 | 4 | 4 | 2 | |||
| 5 | 2 | 2 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Napoli at 60%. The model puts the draw at 19%. The model puts Frosinone Calcio at 21%. The model's most likely scoreline is 2-0.
The market leans toward Napoli. Napoli is priced at 1.56. The draw is priced at 4.46. Frosinone Calcio is priced at 5.3.
Napoli have won 8 of the head-to-head meetings. Frosinone Calcio have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 3 of their head-to-head meetings.
Napoli have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. Frosinone Calcio have 3 wins in their last 5 matches. Frosinone Calcio are on 2 wins in a row.
Napoli average 1 goals per game this season. Napoli average 50% possession. Frosinone Calcio average 2 goals per game this season. Frosinone Calcio average 48% possession.
The model gives 50% for both teams to score. The model gives 57% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Napoli or Frosinone Calcio?
Our model rates Napoli as the most likely outcome at 60% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Napoli vs Frosinone Calcio?
A scoreline around 2-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 12 meetings: 8 Napoli wins, 3 draws, 1 Frosinone Calcio wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
Detailed stats, lineups and the live match story will appear here once match data becomes available.
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.