Genoa vs Fiorentina: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Genoavs
FiorentinaThe model puts Fiorentina at 39%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: low.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −Recent form favours Genoa.
- −The head-to-head record favours Genoa (6-8-1).
- +Genoa are dealing with notable absentees.
- −Fiorentina are dealing with notable absentees.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Recent form
Match DNA
Key points
- Genoa have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Fiorentina have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Genoa have won 6 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Genoa will be without Amorim, Havel, Meichtry, Venturino, Colombo L., Sow Dj..
- Fiorentina will be without Atta, Parisi Fa., Sottil R..
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 1 | 8 | 12 | 8 | 4 | 1 | |
| 2 | 6 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Genoa at 34%. The model puts the draw at 26%. The model puts Fiorentina at 39%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-2.
The market leans toward Fiorentina. Genoa is priced at 3.32. The draw is priced at 3.24. Fiorentina is priced at 2.248.
Genoa have won 6 of the head-to-head meetings. Fiorentina have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 8 of their head-to-head meetings.
Genoa have 3 wins in their last 5 matches. Fiorentina have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
Genoa average 1 goals per game this season. Genoa average 42% possession. Fiorentina average 2 goals per game this season. Fiorentina average 38% possession.
The model gives 58% for both teams to score. The model gives 55% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Genoa or Fiorentina?
Our model rates Fiorentina as the most likely outcome at 39% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Genoa vs Fiorentina?
A scoreline around 1-2 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 6 Genoa wins, 8 draws, 1 Fiorentina wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
Detailed stats, lineups and the live match story will appear here once match data becomes available.
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.