Sassuolo Calcio vs Milan: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Sassuolo Calciovs
MilanThe model puts Milan at 55%. The model leans toward Milan. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Sassuolo Calcio.
- +The head-to-head record favours Milan (4-4-7).
- +Sassuolo Calcio are dealing with notable absentees.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Sassuolo Calcio have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Milan have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Sassuolo Calcio have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Sassuolo Calcio will be without Boloca, Walukiewicz, Volpato, Idzes, Cande, Kone, Paz, Pieragnolo.
- Milan will be without Saelemaekers.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 2 |
| 1 | 2 | 6 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 3 |
| 2 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 2 |
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |
| 4 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Sassuolo Calcio at 22%. The model puts the draw at 23%. The model puts Milan at 55%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-2.
The market leans toward Milan. Sassuolo Calcio is priced at 4.16. The draw is priced at 3.78. Milan is priced at 1.82.
Sassuolo Calcio have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings. Milan have won 7 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 4 of their head-to-head meetings.
Sassuolo Calcio have 3 wins in their last 5 matches. Milan have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
Sassuolo Calcio average 3 goals per game this season. Sassuolo Calcio average 44% possession. Milan average 2 goals per game this season. Milan average 59% possession.
The model gives 74% for both teams to score. The model gives 81% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Sassuolo Calcio or Milan?
Our model rates Milan as the most likely outcome at 55% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Sassuolo Calcio vs Milan?
A scoreline around 1-2 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 4 Sassuolo Calcio wins, 4 draws, 7 Milan wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
Odds movement
Match statistics
Sassuolo Calcio
- 3Doig
- 10Berardi D.
- 15Caleta Car
- 16Leysen
- 17Adzic
- 18Matic N.
- 42Thorstvedt
- 45Lauriente
- 46Cinquegrano
- 80Turati
- 94Esposito S.
- Boloca (Missing Player)
- Walukiewicz (Questionable)
- Volpato (Missing Player)
- Idzes (Missing Player)
- Cande (Questionable)
- Kone (Missing Player)
- Paz (Missing Player)
- Pieragnolo (Missing Player)
Milan
- 2Estupinan
- 5De Winter Ko.
- 9Ramos Go.
- 11Pulisic
- 12Rabiot
- 14Modric
- 16Maignan
- 21Chukwueze
- 22Moreira
- 31Pavlovic St.
- 34Gila Fuentes
- Saelemaekers (Missing Player)
League table
Italy. Serie A| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Internazionale Milano | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 18:8 | 16 |
| 2 |  Roma | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 14:3 | 13 |
| 3 |  Lazio | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 8:3 | 13 |
| 4 |  Cagliari Calcio | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 5:2 | 12 |
| 5 | Milan | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 10:4 | 11 |
| 6 |  Juventus | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 8:4 | 10 |
| 7 |  Como | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 9:6 | 10 |
| 8 |  Napoli | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 10:6 | 10 |
| 9 |  Frosinone Calcio | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 9:7 | 10 |
| 10 | Sassuolo Calcio | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 9:9 | 7 |
| 11 |  Atalanta | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 5:7 | 6 |
| 12 |  Lecce | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 5:10 | 6 |
| 13 |  Udinese Calcio | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 8:11 | 4 |
| 14 |  Torino | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 5:8 | 4 |
| 15 |  Monza 1912 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 8:12 | 4 |
| 16 |  Genoa | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 5:11 | 4 |
| 17 |  Parma | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 4:10 | 4 |
| 18 |  Fiorentina | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 7:14 | 4 |
| 19 |  Bologna 1909 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 3:6 | 2 |
| 20 |  Unione Venezia | 5 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 4:13 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.