Lecce vs Bologna 1909: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Leccevs
Bologna 1909The model puts Bologna 1909 at 44%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: low.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −The head-to-head record favours Lecce (10-4-1).
- −Recent form favours Lecce.
- +Lecce are dealing with notable absentees.
- −Bologna 1909 are dealing with notable absentees.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Expected goals
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Lecce have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Bologna 1909 have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Lecce have won 10 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Lecce will be without Berisha, Stulic.
- Bologna 1909 will be without Mbangula, Odgaard, Holm E..
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12 | 14 | 8 | 3 | ||
| 1 | 11 | 13 | 8 | 3 | ||
| 2 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Lecce at 29%. The model puts the draw at 27%. The model puts Bologna 1909 at 44%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1.
The market leans toward Bologna 1909. Lecce is priced at 4.12. The draw is priced at 3.2. Bologna 1909 is priced at 2.005.
Lecce have won 10 of the head-to-head meetings. Bologna 1909 have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 4 of their head-to-head meetings.
Lecce have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. Bologna 1909 have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
Lecce average 2 goals per game this season. Lecce average 37% possession. Bologna 1909 average 0 goals per game this season. Bologna 1909 average 51% possession.
The model gives 43% for both teams to score. The model gives 36% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Lecce or Bologna 1909?
Our model rates Bologna 1909 as the most likely outcome at 44% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Lecce vs Bologna 1909?
A scoreline around 0-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 10 Lecce wins, 4 draws, 1 Bologna 1909 wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward under 2.5 goals.
Odds movement
Match statistics
Lecce
- 5Seabert
- 14Maleh
- 17Melo Veiga
- 20Ilic
- 22Esteban
- 25Gallo An.
- 29Coulibaly L.
- 30Falcone W.
- 44Gabriel T.
- 50Pierotti
- 99Monteiro
- Berisha (Missing Player)
- Stulic (Missing Player)
Bologna 1909
- 1Skorupski
- 3Theate
- 4Pobega To.
- 5Helland E. F.
- 7Orsolini
- 10Bernardeschi
- 14Lysaker Heggem
- 19Ferguson L.
- 20Zortea
- 33Miranda Ju.
- 91Piccoli P.
- Mbangula (Missing Player)
- Odgaard (Missing Player)
- Holm E. (Missing Player)
League table
Italy. Serie A| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Internazionale Milano | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 18:8 | 16 |
| 2 |  Roma | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 14:3 | 13 |
| 3 |  Lazio | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 8:3 | 13 |
| 4 |  Cagliari Calcio | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 5:2 | 12 |
| 5 |  Milan | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 10:4 | 11 |
| 6 |  Juventus | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 8:4 | 10 |
| 7 |  Como | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 9:6 | 10 |
| 8 |  Napoli | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 10:6 | 10 |
| 9 |  Frosinone Calcio | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 9:7 | 10 |
| 10 |  Sassuolo Calcio | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 9:9 | 7 |
| 11 |  Atalanta | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 5:7 | 6 |
| 12 | Lecce | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 5:10 | 6 |
| 13 |  Udinese Calcio | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 8:11 | 4 |
| 14 |  Torino | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 5:8 | 4 |
| 15 |  Monza 1912 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 8:12 | 4 |
| 16 |  Genoa | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 5:11 | 4 |
| 17 |  Parma | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 4:10 | 4 |
| 18 |  Fiorentina | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 7:14 | 4 |
| 19 | Bologna 1909 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 3:6 | 2 |
| 20 |  Unione Venezia | 5 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 4:13 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.