Atalanta vs Unione Venezia: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Atalantavs
Unione VeneziaThe model puts Atalanta at 62%. The model leans toward Atalanta. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Atalanta.
- +The head-to-head record favours Atalanta (7-2-3).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Atalanta have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Unione Venezia have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Atalanta have won 7 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Atalanta is priced at 1.605.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11 | 6 | 2 | |||
| 1 | 18 | 10 | 3 | |||
| 2 | 15 | 8 | 2 | |||
| 3 | 8 | 5 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 3 | 2 | ||||
| 5 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Atalanta at 62%. The model puts the draw at 22%. The model puts Unione Venezia at 16%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward Atalanta. Atalanta is priced at 1.605. The draw is priced at 4.02. Unione Venezia is priced at 5.5.
Atalanta have won 7 of the head-to-head meetings. Unione Venezia have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 2 of their head-to-head meetings.
Atalanta have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Unione Venezia have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
Atalanta average 1 goals per game this season. Atalanta average 53% possession. Unione Venezia average 1 goals per game this season. Unione Venezia average 50% possession.
The model gives 34% for both teams to score. The model gives 38% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Atalanta or Unione Venezia?
Our model rates Atalanta as the most likely outcome at 62% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Atalanta vs Unione Venezia?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 12 meetings: 7 Atalanta wins, 2 draws, 3 Unione Venezia wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward under 2.5 goals.
League table
Italy. Serie A| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Roma | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 14:3 | 13 |
| 2 |  Internazionale Milano | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 15:8 | 13 |
| 3 |  Lazio | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 8:3 | 13 |
| 4 |  Cagliari Calcio | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 5:2 | 12 |
| 5 |  Milan | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 10:4 | 11 |
| 6 |  Frosinone Calcio | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 9:4 | 10 |
| 7 |  Juventus | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 8:4 | 10 |
| 8 |  Como | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 9:6 | 10 |
| 9 |  Napoli | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 7:6 | 7 |
| 10 |  Sassuolo Calcio | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 9:9 | 7 |
| 11 | Atalanta | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 5:7 | 6 |
| 12 |  Lecce | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 5:10 | 6 |
| 13 |  Udinese Calcio | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 8:11 | 4 |
| 14 |  Torino | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 5:8 | 4 |
| 15 |  Parma | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 4:7 | 4 |
| 16 |  Monza 1912 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 8:12 | 4 |
| 17 |  Fiorentina | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 6:12 | 4 |
| 18 |  Bologna 1909 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 3:6 | 2 |
| 19 |  Genoa | 5 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 3:10 | 1 |
| 20 | Unione Venezia | 5 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 4:13 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.