Friendlies. National Teams

Cook Islands vs Tahiti: Prediction, Odds & Analysis

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Cook Islandsvs

Tahiti

Our predictionTahiti to win

Model score: High · 92/100

Score hint: 0-2

The model puts Tahiti at 86%. The model leans toward Tahiti. Confidence: high.

Why this prediction

+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.

+Recent form favours Tahiti.
−The head-to-head record favours Cook Islands (4-0-0).

Win probabilities

1 · Cook Islands6%

Draw8%

2 · Tahiti86%

1 · Cook IslandsDraw2 · Tahiti

Full team comparison →

Model vs market

Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.

BTTSNo1.83+22.0%

O/U 2.5Under 2.53.50+12.8%

1X2Cook Islands28.00+2.4%

1X2Draw10.50-0.6%

1X2Tahiti1.08-1.8%

Our model BookmakerPositive edge = model disagreement, not a value bet. Not betting advice.

Recent form

Cook IslandsLLWLL

TahitiWWLLL

Team strength rating

Cook Islands

Tahiti

Expected goals

0.35Cook Islands

2.82Tahiti

Over 2.5 goals61%

Both teams to score28%

Most likely scorelines

0-216.8%

0-315.8%

0-111.9%

0-411.1%

0-56.3%

1-25.8%

Match DNA

Cook Islands Tahiti

Key points

Cook Islands have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
Tahiti have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
Cook Islands have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings.
Tahiti is priced at 1.085.

Betting angles

MarketPickOddsAssessment

1X2Tahiti win1.08Fair (-1.8%)

Total goalsOver 2.51.22Fair

Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.

Scoreline probability matrix

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	4	12	17	16	11	6
1	1	4	6	5	4	2
2			1
3
4
5

Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.

Full analysis

The model puts Cook Islands at 6%. The model puts the draw at 8%. The model puts Tahiti at 86%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-2.

The market leans toward Tahiti. Cook Islands is priced at 28. The draw is priced at 10.5. Tahiti is priced at 1.085.

Cook Islands have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings.

Cook Islands have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. Tahiti have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Tahiti are on 2 wins in a row.

The model gives 28% for both teams to score. The model gives 61% for over 2.5 goals.

This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.

Prediction Track Record →Methodology →Model card →