Poland vs Romania: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Polandvs
RomaniaThe model puts Poland at 59%. The model leans toward Poland. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Poland have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Romania have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Poland have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Poland is priced at 1.584.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 6 | 2 | |||
| 1 | 14 | 10 | 4 | |||
| 2 | 13 | 10 | 4 | |||
| 3 | 8 | 6 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Poland at 59%. The model puts the draw at 24%. The model puts Romania at 17%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward Poland. Poland is priced at 1.584. The draw is priced at 4.1. Romania is priced at 5.55.
Poland have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings. Romania have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 2 of their head-to-head meetings.
Poland have 0 wins in their last 5 matches. Romania have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 45% for both teams to score. The model gives 48% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Poland or Romania?
Our model rates Poland as the most likely outcome at 59% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Poland vs Romania?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 8 meetings: 3 Poland wins, 2 draws, 3 Romania wins.
League table
UEFA Nations League - League B| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Switzerland | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3:0 | 3 |
| 2 |  Scotland | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0:0 | 1 |
| 3 |  Slovenia | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0:0 | 1 |
| 4 |  Republic of North Macedonia | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0:3 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.