Sunderland vs Brentford: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Sunderlandvs
BrentfordThe model puts Brentford at 44%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: low.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −Recent form favours Sunderland.
- −The head-to-head record favours Sunderland (3-3-1).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Expected goals
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Sunderland have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Brentford have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Sunderland have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Brentford is priced at 2.025.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | |
| 1 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 2 |
| 2 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 2 |
| 3 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 |
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Sunderland at 31%. The model puts the draw at 25%. The model puts Brentford at 44%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-2.
The market leans toward Brentford. Sunderland is priced at 3.58. The draw is priced at 3.54. Brentford is priced at 2.025.
Sunderland have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings. Brentford have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 3 of their head-to-head meetings.
Sunderland have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Brentford have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
Sunderland average 1 goals per game this season. Sunderland average 51% possession. Brentford average 4 goals per game this season. Brentford average 70% possession.
The model gives 78% for both teams to score. The model gives 81% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Sunderland or Brentford?
Our model rates Brentford as the most likely outcome at 44% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Sunderland vs Brentford?
A scoreline around 1-2 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 7 meetings: 3 Sunderland wins, 3 draws, 1 Brentford wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.