Houston Dynamo vs Sporting Kansas City: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Houston Dynamovs
Sporting Kansas CityThe model puts Houston Dynamo at 65%. The model leans toward Houston Dynamo. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Houston Dynamo creates more chances (13 vs 9 shots per game).
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Houston Dynamo have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Sporting Kansas City have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Houston Dynamo have won 6 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Houston Dynamo is priced at 1.47.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11 | 6 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 19 | 9 | 2 | |||
| 2 | 16 | 8 | 2 | |||
| 3 | 9 | 5 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 4 | 2 | ||||
| 5 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Houston Dynamo at 65%. The model puts the draw at 21%. The model puts Sporting Kansas City at 14%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward Houston Dynamo. Houston Dynamo is priced at 1.47. The draw is priced at 4.64. Sporting Kansas City is priced at 6.3.
Houston Dynamo have won 6 of the head-to-head meetings. Sporting Kansas City have won 5 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 4 of their head-to-head meetings.
Houston Dynamo have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. Sporting Kansas City have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
Houston Dynamo average 1 goals per game this season. Houston Dynamo average 45% possession. Sporting Kansas City average 1 goals per game this season. Sporting Kansas City average 44% possession.
The model gives 32% for both teams to score. The model gives 38% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Houston Dynamo or Sporting Kansas City?
Our model rates Houston Dynamo as the most likely outcome at 65% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Houston Dynamo vs Sporting Kansas City?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 6 Houston Dynamo wins, 4 draws, 5 Sporting Kansas City wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward under 2.5 goals.
League table
USA. MLS| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Vancouver Whitecaps | 24 | 14 | 6 | 4 | 53:23 | 46 |
| 2 | Houston Dynamo | 25 | 13 | 8 | 4 | 32:28 | 43 |
| 3 |  Dallas | 25 | 12 | 6 | 7 | 49:42 | 43 |
| 4 |  San Jose Earthquakes | 25 | 12 | 8 | 5 | 44:36 | 41 |
| 5 |  St. Louis City | 25 | 11 | 6 | 8 | 42:35 | 41 |
| 6 |  Los Angeles | 26 | 11 | 8 | 7 | 41:27 | 40 |
| 7 |  Colorado Rapids | 25 | 11 | 12 | 2 | 33:32 | 35 |
| 8 |  Portland Timbers | 25 | 9 | 11 | 5 | 47:47 | 32 |
| 9 |  San Diego | 25 | 8 | 11 | 6 | 42:42 | 30 |
| 10 |  Los Angeles Galaxy | 26 | 7 | 10 | 9 | 31:40 | 30 |
| 11 |  Real Salt Lake | 24 | 8 | 11 | 5 | 37:39 | 29 |
| 12 |  Minnesota United | 25 | 7 | 10 | 8 | 37:43 | 29 |
| 13 |  Austin | 25 | 7 | 10 | 8 | 32:44 | 29 |
| 14 |  Seattle Sounders | 23 | 7 | 9 | 7 | 25:30 | 28 |
| 15 | Sporting Kansas City | 24 | 5 | 16 | 3 | 26:59 | 18 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.