Philadelphia Union vs Orlando City: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Philadelphia Unionvs
Orlando CityThe model puts Philadelphia Union at 60%. The model leans toward Philadelphia Union. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −Recent form favours Orlando City.
- −Orlando City score more per game (1.0 at home vs 2.0 away).
- +Philadelphia Union creates more chances (17 vs 11 shots per game).
- +The head-to-head record favours Philadelphia Union (7-4-4).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Philadelphia Union have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Orlando City have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Philadelphia Union have won 7 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Philadelphia Union is priced at 1.52.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 4 | 2 | |||
| 1 | 11 | 9 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 12 | 10 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 8 | 7 | 3 | |||
| 4 | 4 | 4 | 2 | |||
| 5 | 2 | 2 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Philadelphia Union at 60%. The model puts the draw at 18%. The model puts Orlando City at 22%. The model's most likely scoreline is 2-0.
The market leans toward Philadelphia Union. Philadelphia Union is priced at 1.52. The draw is priced at 4.64. Orlando City is priced at 5.55.
Philadelphia Union have won 7 of the head-to-head meetings. Orlando City have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 4 of their head-to-head meetings.
Philadelphia Union have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. Orlando City have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
Philadelphia Union average 1 goals per game this season. Philadelphia Union average 48% possession. Orlando City average 2 goals per game this season. Orlando City average 46% possession.
The model gives 50% for both teams to score. The model gives 57% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Philadelphia Union or Orlando City?
Our model rates Philadelphia Union as the most likely outcome at 60% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Philadelphia Union vs Orlando City?
A scoreline around 2-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 7 Philadelphia Union wins, 4 draws, 4 Orlando City wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
League table
USA. MLS| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Vancouver Whitecaps | 24 | 14 | 6 | 4 | 53:23 | 46 |
| 2 |  Houston Dynamo | 25 | 13 | 8 | 4 | 32:28 | 43 |
| 3 |  Dallas | 25 | 12 | 6 | 7 | 49:42 | 43 |
| 4 |  San Jose Earthquakes | 25 | 12 | 8 | 5 | 44:36 | 41 |
| 5 |  St. Louis City | 25 | 11 | 6 | 8 | 42:35 | 41 |
| 6 |  Los Angeles | 26 | 11 | 8 | 7 | 41:27 | 40 |
| 7 |  Colorado Rapids | 25 | 11 | 12 | 2 | 33:32 | 35 |
| 8 |  Portland Timbers | 25 | 9 | 11 | 5 | 47:47 | 32 |
| 9 |  San Diego | 25 | 8 | 11 | 6 | 42:42 | 30 |
| 10 |  Los Angeles Galaxy | 26 | 7 | 10 | 9 | 31:40 | 30 |
| 11 |  Real Salt Lake | 24 | 8 | 11 | 5 | 37:39 | 29 |
| 12 |  Minnesota United | 25 | 7 | 10 | 8 | 37:43 | 29 |
| 13 |  Austin | 25 | 7 | 10 | 8 | 32:44 | 29 |
| 14 |  Seattle Sounders | 23 | 7 | 9 | 7 | 25:30 | 28 |
| 15 |  Sporting Kansas City | 24 | 5 | 16 | 3 | 26:59 | 18 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.