Vancouver Whitecaps vs D.C. United: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Vancouver Whitecapsvs
D.C. UnitedThe model puts Vancouver Whitecaps at 78%. The model leans toward Vancouver Whitecaps. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Vancouver Whitecaps score more per game (2.0 at home vs 1.0 away).
- +Vancouver Whitecaps creates more chances (18 vs 10 shots per game).
- +Vancouver Whitecaps controls more of the ball (56% vs 36%).
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Vancouver Whitecaps have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- D.C. United have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Vancouver Whitecaps have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Vancouver Whitecaps is priced at 1.225.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 2 | ||||
| 1 | 13 | 5 | 1 | |||
| 2 | 17 | 7 | 1 | |||
| 3 | 14 | 6 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 9 | 4 | ||||
| 5 | 5 | 2 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Vancouver Whitecaps at 78%. The model puts the draw at 14%. The model puts D.C. United at 8%. The model's most likely scoreline is 2-0.
The market leans toward Vancouver Whitecaps. Vancouver Whitecaps is priced at 1.225. The draw is priced at 6.7. D.C. United is priced at 11.
Vancouver Whitecaps have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings. D.C. United have won 5 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 4 of their head-to-head meetings.
Vancouver Whitecaps have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. D.C. United have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
Vancouver Whitecaps average 2 goals per game this season. Vancouver Whitecaps average 56% possession. D.C. United average 1 goals per game this season. D.C. United average 36% possession.
The model gives 31% for both teams to score. The model gives 58% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Vancouver Whitecaps or D.C. United?
Our model rates Vancouver Whitecaps as the most likely outcome at 78% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Vancouver Whitecaps vs D.C. United?
A scoreline around 2-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 12 meetings: 3 Vancouver Whitecaps wins, 4 draws, 5 D.C. United wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
League table
USA. MLS| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vancouver Whitecaps | 24 | 14 | 6 | 4 | 53:23 | 46 |
| 2 |  Houston Dynamo | 26 | 13 | 8 | 5 | 34:30 | 44 |
| 3 |  St. Louis City | 26 | 12 | 6 | 8 | 45:36 | 44 |
| 4 |  Dallas | 26 | 12 | 6 | 8 | 49:42 | 44 |
| 5 |  San Jose Earthquakes | 26 | 12 | 8 | 6 | 46:38 | 42 |
| 6 |  Los Angeles | 27 | 11 | 8 | 8 | 43:29 | 41 |
| 7 |  Colorado Rapids | 25 | 11 | 12 | 2 | 33:32 | 35 |
| 8 |  Los Angeles Galaxy | 27 | 8 | 10 | 9 | 34:42 | 33 |
| 9 |  Portland Timbers | 25 | 9 | 11 | 5 | 47:47 | 32 |
| 10 |  San Diego | 25 | 8 | 11 | 6 | 42:42 | 30 |
| 11 |  Austin | 26 | 7 | 10 | 9 | 32:44 | 30 |
| 12 |  Real Salt Lake | 24 | 8 | 11 | 5 | 37:39 | 29 |
| 13 |  Minnesota United | 26 | 7 | 11 | 8 | 39:46 | 29 |
| 14 |  Seattle Sounders | 23 | 7 | 9 | 7 | 25:30 | 28 |
| 15 |  Sporting Kansas City | 25 | 5 | 17 | 3 | 29:63 | 18 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.