Seattle Sounders vs Minnesota United: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Seattle Soundersvs
Minnesota UnitedThe model puts Seattle Sounders at 45%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Seattle Sounders score more per game (2.0 at home vs 1.0 away).
- −Recent form favours Minnesota United.
- −The head-to-head record favours Minnesota United (5-2-8).
- +Seattle Sounders creates more chances (15 vs 12 shots per game).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Seattle Sounders have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Minnesota United have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Seattle Sounders have won 5 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Seattle Sounders is priced at 2.155.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 9 | 11 | 7 | 3 | ||
| 2 | 8 | 10 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Seattle Sounders at 45%. The model puts the draw at 23%. The model puts Minnesota United at 32%. The model's most likely scoreline is 2-1.
The market leans toward Seattle Sounders. Seattle Sounders is priced at 2.155. The draw is priced at 3.72. Minnesota United is priced at 3.115.
Seattle Sounders have won 5 of the head-to-head meetings. Minnesota United have won 8 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 2 of their head-to-head meetings.
Seattle Sounders have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Minnesota United have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
Seattle Sounders average 2 goals per game this season. Seattle Sounders average 50% possession. Minnesota United average 1 goals per game this season. Minnesota United average 46% possession.
The model gives 57% for both teams to score. The model gives 56% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Seattle Sounders or Minnesota United?
Our model rates Seattle Sounders as the most likely outcome at 45% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Seattle Sounders vs Minnesota United?
A scoreline around 2-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 5 Seattle Sounders wins, 2 draws, 8 Minnesota United wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
League table
USA. MLS| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Vancouver Whitecaps | 24 | 14 | 6 | 4 | 53:23 | 46 |
| 2 |  Houston Dynamo | 25 | 13 | 8 | 4 | 32:28 | 43 |
| 3 |  Dallas | 25 | 12 | 6 | 7 | 49:42 | 43 |
| 4 |  San Jose Earthquakes | 25 | 12 | 8 | 5 | 44:36 | 41 |
| 5 |  St. Louis City | 25 | 11 | 6 | 8 | 42:35 | 41 |
| 6 |  Los Angeles | 26 | 11 | 8 | 7 | 41:27 | 40 |
| 7 |  Colorado Rapids | 25 | 11 | 12 | 2 | 33:32 | 35 |
| 8 |  Portland Timbers | 25 | 9 | 11 | 5 | 47:47 | 32 |
| 9 |  San Diego | 25 | 8 | 11 | 6 | 42:42 | 30 |
| 10 |  Los Angeles Galaxy | 26 | 7 | 10 | 9 | 31:40 | 30 |
| 11 |  Real Salt Lake | 24 | 8 | 11 | 5 | 37:39 | 29 |
| 12 | Minnesota United | 25 | 7 | 10 | 8 | 37:43 | 29 |
| 13 |  Austin | 25 | 7 | 10 | 8 | 32:44 | 29 |
| 14 | Seattle Sounders | 23 | 7 | 9 | 7 | 25:30 | 28 |
| 15 |  Sporting Kansas City | 24 | 5 | 16 | 3 | 26:59 | 18 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.