Real Salt Lake vs New England Revolution: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Real Salt Lakevs
New England RevolutionThe model puts Real Salt Lake at 48%. The model leans toward Real Salt Lake. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −Recent form favours New England Revolution.
- +Real Salt Lake score more per game (2.0 at home vs 1.0 away).
- +The head-to-head record favours Real Salt Lake (8-4-3).
- +Real Salt Lake creates more chances (17 vs 13 shots per game).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Real Salt Lake have 0 wins in their last 5 matches.
- New England Revolution have 4 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Real Salt Lake have won 8 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Real Salt Lake is priced at 2.144.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 10 | 11 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 9 | 10 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 2 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Real Salt Lake at 48%. The model puts the draw at 22%. The model puts New England Revolution at 31%. The model's most likely scoreline is 2-1.
The market leans toward Real Salt Lake. Real Salt Lake is priced at 2.144. The draw is priced at 3.78. New England Revolution is priced at 3.104.
Real Salt Lake have won 8 of the head-to-head meetings. New England Revolution have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 4 of their head-to-head meetings.
Real Salt Lake have 0 wins in their last 5 matches. New England Revolution have 4 wins in their last 5 matches. New England Revolution are on 3 wins in a row.
Real Salt Lake average 2 goals per game this season. Real Salt Lake average 52% possession. New England Revolution average 1 goals per game this season. New England Revolution average 51% possession.
The model gives 57% for both teams to score. The model gives 56% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Real Salt Lake or New England Revolution?
Our model rates Real Salt Lake as the most likely outcome at 48% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Real Salt Lake vs New England Revolution?
A scoreline around 2-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 8 Real Salt Lake wins, 4 draws, 3 New England Revolution wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
League table
USA. MLS| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Vancouver Whitecaps | 24 | 14 | 6 | 4 | 53:23 | 46 |
| 2 |  Houston Dynamo | 26 | 13 | 8 | 5 | 34:30 | 44 |
| 3 |  St. Louis City | 26 | 12 | 6 | 8 | 45:36 | 44 |
| 4 |  Dallas | 26 | 12 | 6 | 8 | 49:42 | 44 |
| 5 |  San Jose Earthquakes | 26 | 12 | 8 | 6 | 46:38 | 42 |
| 6 |  Los Angeles | 27 | 11 | 8 | 8 | 43:29 | 41 |
| 7 |  Colorado Rapids | 25 | 11 | 12 | 2 | 33:32 | 35 |
| 8 |  Los Angeles Galaxy | 27 | 8 | 10 | 9 | 34:42 | 33 |
| 9 |  Portland Timbers | 25 | 9 | 11 | 5 | 47:47 | 32 |
| 10 |  San Diego | 25 | 8 | 11 | 6 | 42:42 | 30 |
| 11 |  Austin | 26 | 7 | 10 | 9 | 32:44 | 30 |
| 12 | Real Salt Lake | 24 | 8 | 11 | 5 | 37:39 | 29 |
| 13 |  Minnesota United | 26 | 7 | 11 | 8 | 39:46 | 29 |
| 14 |  Seattle Sounders | 23 | 7 | 9 | 7 | 25:30 | 28 |
| 15 |  Sporting Kansas City | 25 | 5 | 17 | 3 | 29:63 | 18 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.