Excelsior vs Groningen: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Excelsiorvs
GroningenThe model puts Groningen at 38%. The model sees this as a close contest. Confidence: low.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Groningen.
- −The head-to-head record favours Excelsior (9-1-5).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Expected goals
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Excelsior have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Groningen have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Excelsior have won 9 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Groningen is priced at 2.55.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 2 | |
| 2 | 3 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 1 |
| 3 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 2 | |
| 4 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |
| 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Excelsior at 38%. The model puts the draw at 24%. The model puts Groningen at 38%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-2.
The market frames this as a close contest. Excelsior is priced at 2.58. The draw is priced at 3.64. Groningen is priced at 2.55.
Excelsior have won 9 of the head-to-head meetings. Groningen have won 5 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 1 of their head-to-head meetings.
Excelsior have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. Groningen have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
Excelsior average 1 goals per game this season. Excelsior average 41% possession. Groningen average 4 goals per game this season. Groningen average 45% possession.
The model gives 79% for both teams to score. The model gives 81% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Excelsior or Groningen?
Our model rates Groningen as the most likely outcome at 38% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Excelsior vs Groningen?
A scoreline around 1-2 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 9 Excelsior wins, 1 draws, 5 Groningen wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
League table
Netherlands. Eredivisie| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  AZ Alkmaar | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 18:6 | 19 |
| 2 |  Feyenoord | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 25:7 | 17 |
| 3 |  PSV Eindhoven | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 24:10 | 16 |
| 4 |  Twente | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 15:7 | 16 |
| 5 |  Ajax | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 21:9 | 14 |
| 6 |  Fortuna Sittard | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 13:14 | 13 |
| 7 | Excelsior | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 15:9 | 11 |
| 8 | Groningen | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 15:13 | 11 |
| 9 |  Go Ahead Eagles | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 16:14 | 10 |
| 10 |  Heerenveen | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 11:9 | 9 |
| 11 |  N.E.C. | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 12:13 | 8 |
| 12 |  Sparta Rotterdam | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 10:17 | 5 |
| 13 |  Telstar | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 5:12 | 5 |
| 14 |  Cambuur | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 10:19 | 5 |
| 15 |  Utrecht | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 11:24 | 5 |
| 16 |  PEC Zwolle | 7 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 6:20 | 4 |
| 17 |  ADO Den Haag | 7 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 7:17 | 2 |
| 18 |  Willem II | 7 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 6:20 | 2 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.