Feyenoord vs AZ Alkmaar: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Feyenoordvs
AZ AlkmaarThe model puts Feyenoord at 54%. The model leans toward Feyenoord. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +The head-to-head record favours Feyenoord (9-2-4).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Feyenoord have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- AZ Alkmaar have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Feyenoord have won 9 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Feyenoord is priced at 1.83.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ||||||
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 3 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 4 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 4 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 1 | |
| 5 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 2 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Feyenoord at 54%. The model puts the draw at 24%. The model puts AZ Alkmaar at 22%. The model's most likely scoreline is 3-1.
The market leans toward Feyenoord. Feyenoord is priced at 1.83. The draw is priced at 3.82. AZ Alkmaar is priced at 4.08.
Feyenoord have won 9 of the head-to-head meetings. AZ Alkmaar have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 2 of their head-to-head meetings.
Feyenoord have 3 wins in their last 5 matches. Feyenoord are on 2 wins in a row. AZ Alkmaar have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
Feyenoord average 2 goals per game this season. Feyenoord average 53% possession. AZ Alkmaar average 4 goals per game this season. AZ Alkmaar average 52% possession.
The model gives 79% for both teams to score. The model gives 89% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Feyenoord or AZ Alkmaar?
Our model rates Feyenoord as the most likely outcome at 54% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Feyenoord vs AZ Alkmaar?
A scoreline around 3-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 9 Feyenoord wins, 2 draws, 4 AZ Alkmaar wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
League table
Netherlands. Eredivisie| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AZ Alkmaar | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 18:6 | 19 |
| 2 | Feyenoord | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 25:7 | 17 |
| 3 |  PSV Eindhoven | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 24:10 | 16 |
| 4 |  Twente | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 15:7 | 16 |
| 5 |  Ajax | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 21:9 | 14 |
| 6 |  Fortuna Sittard | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 13:14 | 13 |
| 7 |  Excelsior | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 15:9 | 11 |
| 8 |  Groningen | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 15:13 | 11 |
| 9 |  Go Ahead Eagles | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 16:14 | 10 |
| 10 |  Heerenveen | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 11:9 | 9 |
| 11 |  N.E.C. | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 12:13 | 8 |
| 12 |  Sparta Rotterdam | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 10:17 | 5 |
| 13 |  Telstar | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 5:12 | 5 |
| 14 |  Cambuur | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 10:19 | 5 |
| 15 |  Utrecht | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 11:24 | 5 |
| 16 |  PEC Zwolle | 7 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 6:20 | 4 |
| 17 |  ADO Den Haag | 7 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 7:17 | 2 |
| 18 |  Willem II | 7 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 6:20 | 2 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.