Fortuna Sittard vs Twente: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Fortuna Sittardvs
TwenteThe model puts Twente at 67%. The model leans toward Twente. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +The head-to-head record favours Twente (3-1-11).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Fortuna Sittard have 4 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Twente have 4 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Fortuna Sittard have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Twente is priced at 1.425.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 12 | 13 | 9 | 5 | 2 |
| 1 | 4 | 9 | 9 | 7 | 3 | 1 |
| 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Fortuna Sittard at 15%. The model puts the draw at 18%. The model puts Twente at 67%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-2.
The market leans toward Twente. Fortuna Sittard is priced at 6.5. The draw is priced at 5. Twente is priced at 1.425.
Fortuna Sittard have won 3 of the head-to-head meetings. Twente have won 11 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 1 of their head-to-head meetings.
Fortuna Sittard have 4 wins in their last 5 matches. Fortuna Sittard are on 2 wins in a row. Twente have 4 wins in their last 5 matches. Twente are on 4 wins in a row.
Fortuna Sittard average 3 goals per game this season. Fortuna Sittard average 36% possession. Twente average 0 goals per game this season. Twente average 55% possession.
The model gives 45% for both teams to score. The model gives 54% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Fortuna Sittard or Twente?
Our model rates Twente as the most likely outcome at 67% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Fortuna Sittard vs Twente?
A scoreline around 0-2 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 3 Fortuna Sittard wins, 1 draws, 11 Twente wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
League table
Netherlands. Eredivisie| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  AZ Alkmaar | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 18:6 | 19 |
| 2 |  Feyenoord | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 25:7 | 17 |
| 3 |  PSV Eindhoven | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 24:10 | 16 |
| 4 | Twente | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 15:7 | 16 |
| 5 |  Ajax | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 21:9 | 14 |
| 6 | Fortuna Sittard | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 13:14 | 13 |
| 7 |  Excelsior | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 15:9 | 11 |
| 8 |  Groningen | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 15:13 | 11 |
| 9 |  Go Ahead Eagles | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 16:14 | 10 |
| 10 |  Heerenveen | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 11:9 | 9 |
| 11 |  N.E.C. | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 12:13 | 8 |
| 12 |  Sparta Rotterdam | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 10:17 | 5 |
| 13 |  Telstar | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 5:12 | 5 |
| 14 |  Cambuur | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 10:19 | 5 |
| 15 |  Utrecht | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 11:24 | 5 |
| 16 |  PEC Zwolle | 7 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 6:20 | 4 |
| 17 |  ADO Den Haag | 7 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 7:17 | 2 |
| 18 |  Willem II | 7 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 6:20 | 2 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.