Sevastopol vs Rubin Yalta: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Sevastopolvs
Rubin YaltaThe model puts Sevastopol at 59%. The model leans toward Sevastopol. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- −Recent form favours Rubin Yalta.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Sevastopol have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Rubin Yalta have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Sevastopol have won 6 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Sevastopol is priced at 1.5.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 5 | 2 | |||
| 1 | 14 | 10 | 4 | |||
| 2 | 13 | 9 | 3 | |||
| 3 | 8 | 6 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 2 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Sevastopol at 59%. The model puts the draw at 24%. The model puts Rubin Yalta at 18%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward Sevastopol. Sevastopol is priced at 1.5. The draw is priced at 3.9. Rubin Yalta is priced at 5.95.
Sevastopol have won 6 of the head-to-head meetings. Rubin Yalta have won 9 of the head-to-head meetings.
Sevastopol have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. Rubin Yalta have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 44% for both teams to score. The model gives 49% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Sevastopol or Rubin Yalta?
Our model rates Sevastopol as the most likely outcome at 59% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Sevastopol vs Rubin Yalta?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 15 meetings: 6 Sevastopol wins, 0 draws, 9 Rubin Yalta wins.
Odds movement
League table
Russian Championship. League 2. Division B. Group 1| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Shakhter Donetsk | 23 | 15 | 3 | 5 | 46:22 | 50 |
| 2 | Sevastopol | 21 | 16 | 3 | 2 | 38:17 | 50 |
| 3 |  Rostov II | 23 | 14 | 4 | 5 | 45:21 | 47 |
| 4 |  Pobeda Khasavyurt | 22 | 12 | 7 | 3 | 42:28 | 39 |
| 5 | Rubin Yalta | 21 | 9 | 5 | 7 | 29:21 | 34 |
| 6 |  Kyzyltash | 22 | 10 | 8 | 4 | 38:30 | 34 |
| 7 |  Druzhba Maykop | 22 | 9 | 7 | 6 | 26:26 | 33 |
| 8 |  Nart Cherkessk | 22 | 10 | 9 | 3 | 30:20 | 33 |
| 9 |  Spartak Nalchik | 22 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 30:23 | 31 |
| 10 |  Zarya Luhansk Region | 23 | 8 | 9 | 6 | 34:31 | 30 |
| 11 |  Neftyanik Izberbash | 23 | 7 | 15 | 1 | 20:57 | 22 |
| 12 |  Astrakhan | 22 | 5 | 11 | 6 | 23:34 | 21 |
| 13 |  Anghust Nazran | 22 | 4 | 14 | 4 | 10:26 | 16 |
| 14 |  Chayka Peschanokopskoye (Youth) | 23 | 4 | 17 | 2 | 20:52 | 14 |
| 15 |  Dynamo Makhachkala II | 23 | 3 | 15 | 5 | 19:42 | 14 |
| 16 |  PSK Dinskaya | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.